September 06, 2018 08:17AM | Registered: 14 years ago Posts: 1,174
Status: All Pro
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Yeah, I read her method and thought that there was a lot of fudge in there. Throw it up against the wall and see what sticks. Its a gimmick. Because it is now in vogue to talk about stats, people are doing it. They believe it sells and gives them credibility. If I had done work like that at my job, it wouldn't take long for someone to have gutted me in front of the bosses. I would not allow myself to present such shallow work to them.
Working with stats can be brutal, and very, very subjective. In my opinion, when dealing with only "W/L" there are too many factors, too many variables, too many "non-constants" or "out of control" parameters, to make statistically valuable "confidence" predictions. She ran thousands of simulations, so what. If her input is poor, due to poor selection of criteria to use, then her output will always be poor.
Her method is just a "best guess." Everyone on this board has similar ability, maybe not in crunching numbers, but in making good, educated guesses.
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