Re: Ok. Here ya go again.

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Rams43

But common sense is my default position. When she says that the Ram record will decline after they’ve made so many startling upgrades?

I say paralysis of analysis has occurred. As to a 10.9 win maximum? Bet the over lol.

I touched on this somewhere else in the thread, but to recap: the terms "Ceiling" and "Floor" are not synonymous with "Max" and "Min" in this context. When you simulate the season 320,000 times, you will get a lot of results where teams are 0-16, 16-0, etc. For instance, say the Rams finished 16-0 in 30 of these simulations. That would mean in the real season, their odds of going 16-0 based on that model are .009%. Over 320,000 simulations the min/max for every team is probably so wide that it would be next to worthless. There's a threshold at which results occur with enough frequency that they are not considered outliers, and that's where her Floor/Ceiling come from.

As for the "declining" record despite the upgraded talent - talent is only one piece of this puzzle, as is evidenced by countless teams throughout NFL history. The 2011 Eagles "Dream Team" comes to mind. 2009/10 they finished 11-5, 10-6. Added tons of talent in the offseason and had to rally late to finish 8-8 in 2011. Andy Reid was fired the next year.

There's a lot more than talent that goes into Ws and Ls, and that's exactly what these models are trying to account for.