Re: 43, I'm certainly no expert either

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RamEd
But I can tell you that the terms "floor" and "ceiling" here do not mean what you think they do. And perhaps that's a legitimate criticism in that she should be more transparent and detailed about the methods she uses to arrive at her predictions.

Again I'm no expert, but in simple terms this is my understanding. Her model involves simulating the NFL season 320,000 times, and I guarantee you there were many instances in those simulations where teams finished 0-16 or 16-0. However, you don't see anyone with a floor of 0 or a ceiling of 16. The terms don't mean the absolute extreme possibilities. Rather, there's some threshold at which a team winning more or less than that number of games becomes so unlikely that it's considered an outlier.

I really have no dog in this fight, I don't recall ever seeing or hearing of Frelund before reading this piece. I just think some folks are being way too quick to dismiss this piece.