Cynthia Frelund NFC Win Totals: Schein LA vs LA (Bowl)
| September 04, 2018 12:06PM |
NFC win-total projections: New Orleans Saints fully boom-or-bust
By Cynthia Frelund
NFL Network Analytics Expert
Published: Sept. 4, 2018
I love win totals and these are the best I've got.
In order to create season-long win totals, I take data from the past 10 NFL campaigns and use it to forecast this year's outcomes. I make a model that takes into account trends, personnel and situations that were proven to lead to wins (or losses) in the past. Then I "play out the season" 320,000 times. Yes, it's kind of like "Madden" simulations. Yes, it adapts each year to account for the game's evolution. And yes, I am aware no team is winning 8.2 games ...
... but the reason our game is the best is the same reason we need fractions: parity. There are only 256 total regular-season games and there should be more 8-8 results. Look at the NFC East, where there's been a different division winner since 2004! So, take it for what it's worth: relative value. Then look to see how big the ceiling-to-floor range is -- if it's big, that means a team is projected for more close games.
You'll find win totals for every NFC team below. Check back on Wednesday for the AFC calculations.
Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 wins
Ceiling: 6.3
Floor: 3.7
David Johnson is unquestionably Arizona's offensive motor. With the stud running back leading the way in 2016, the Cardinals ranked third in total first downs gained. Last season, when Johnson was lost on opening day? Arizona plummeted to 17th. Still, even with the return of this scrimmage-yards monster, the Cards have offensive concerns. Questions at quarterback and receiver (NOTE: not Larry Fitzgerald, but the rest of the pass catchers) mean this offense projects to rank in the bottom third in total yards and touchdowns, according to my model.
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 wins
Ceiling: 8.9
Floor: 6.7
The Falcons should look more like the team from 2016 than 2017, due to the addition of first-round wideout Calvin Ridley, who is poised to demand the kind of attention from defenses that will open up more options in Atlanta's passing game and help disguise rushing plays. The NFC South could be a beneficiary of a very competitive NFC North, as my model indicates the latter division might cannibalize itself a bit, leaving a wild-card slot open for the rest of the conference. In other words, the Falcons have a very realistic chance of making a playoff run. So, why only 7.5 wins as the top-line number in this projection? Well, here's an honest peek behind the curtain: I am more bullish on the Falcons than this win total suggests. BUT, in order to trend toward double-digit wins, Atlanta must increase its offensive efficiency and play-calling diversity. That will come down to how well Steve Sarkisian performs in his second year running the offense.
Carolina Panthers: 7.2 wins
Ceiling: 7.7
Floor: 6.1
If this team had almost any other quarterback, the number would be a lot lower. The main red flag is the O-line. In the preseason -- and yes, I know it's the preseason -- Carolina's offensive front was pushed back and/or allowed pressure on the greatest percentage of passing downs in the NFL. The Panthers just added tackle depth by acquiring Corey Robinson in a trade with the Lions, but Robinson's a former seventh-round pick with eight career starts. In the past seven years, teams that have allowed push-back + pressures ranking in the bottom five during the regular season haven't made the playoffs once.
Chicago Bears: 8.0 wins
Ceiling: 9.9
Floor: 7.2
Before Khalil Mack was traded to the Bears, I noted that this defense seemed underrated. Last season, the unit ranked 10th in total defense and fourth in touchdowns allowed, so the arrow was already pointing up for 2018. Then, after the blockbuster trade for Mack, Chicago's win total increased by 1.6 games overnight (literally). Defensive stability will give this offense -- which ranked 30th in yards and 29th in points last year -- the support it needs to grow. If second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky can continue to develop under new head coach Matt Nagy, the Bears have a very realistic shot at the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys: 7.4 wins
Ceiling: 8.9
Floor: 6.7
Exceptional O-lines and running backs who earn first downs at the rate Ezekiel Elliott has posted in the past (he led the league with 6.1 per game in 2016) provide stability and greater win projections -- even with a lot of questions in the passing game.
Detroit Lions: 7.3 wins
Ceiling: 8.3
Floor: 5.2
When you don't have a reliable ground attack, the bottom falls out of your projected floor. There are plenty of stats to showcase the Lions' recent ineptitude in this area (ranking dead last in 2017 with an average of 76.3 rushing yards per game is one), but the free-agent addition of LeGarrette Blount and high draft picks spent on LG Frank Ragnow (first round) and RB Kerryon Johnson (second round) signal that new head coach Matt Patricia might be scheming to change things.
Green Bay Packers: 10.2 wins (projected NFC North champions)
Ceiling: 12.0
Floor: 9.1
Without Aaron Rodgers last season, the Packers averaged 7.8 fewer points per game. Over the past three seasons, Rodgers averaged a touchdown pass on 6.1 percent of his attempts (yes, this led the league in that span). Adding Jimmy Graham, who topped the NFL with 10 red-zone touchdowns last season, will help account for the loss of Jordy Nelson. The young secondary is a source of concern -- Green Bay allowed 30 TD passes last season (tied for 29th) and a 102.0 passer rating to opposing QBs (31st) -- but Rodgers' return is a much bigger positive indicator.
Los Angeles Rams: 9.2 wins (projected NFC West champions)
Ceiling: 10.9
Floor: 8.8
The Rams led the NFL in scoring during Sean McVay's debut campaign. While I don't have them projected to average 29.9 points per game again in Jared Goff's third year, their high-potential defense means they won't need to score as much in order to win. Also, according to my calculations, no individual defender drives a greater win-total uptick than Aaron Donald (1.9 games).
Minnesota Vikings: 9.9 wins (projected wild card)
Ceiling: 11.8
Floor: 8.4
The Vikings' defense projects to finish ranked no lower than third in my model when it comes to pressures, total yards and touchdowns allowed. But between their difficult schedule and an O-line that has shown early signs of ranking poorly in push-back + pressures, there are some red flags here. Especially with a new quarterback who has experienced issues with red-zone turnovers in the past.
New Orleans Saints: 10.1 wins (projected NFC South champions)
Ceiling: 12.9
Floor: 7.9
No team has a higher projected balance of efficiency on offense and defense than the Saints, as they rank in the top five in each of the following predicted metrics: rushing average, third-down conversion rate on both sides of the ball and defensive pressures. From Oct. 21 through Nov. 22, the Saints face the Ravens and Vikings on the road, and the Rams, Eagles and Falcons at home. This stretch is the source of New Orleans' massive floor-to-ceiling range.
New York Giants: 8.003 wins (projected wild card)
Ceiling: 9.7
Floor: 7.2
Last season, New York logged the fewest big plays in the league (68 combined rushes of 10-plus yards and completions of 20-plus). But after upgrading the O-line, drafting a running back with major pass-catching upside and getting back Odell Beckham Jr., the G-Men should experience a huge uptick in big plays. My model shows early signs that the Dec. 2 home game against the Bears could be what determines who goes to the playoffs and who is left on the outside looking in.
Philadelphia Eagles: 11.7 wins (projected NFC East champions)
Ceiling: 12.1
Floor: 8.8
At the publishing of this piece, it's unclear when Carson Wentz will return. We do know Nick Foles is the Week 1 starter at home against Atlanta. That shifted the Eagles' win projection from 65.5 percent to 54.6 percent in the opener. However, this was the only game out of Philly's first four that saw the win projection decrease by more than 3 percent. (Games against the Bucs, Colts and Titans all spit out convincing win percentages, regardless of who's under center.) Efficiency and diversity of plays on offense, combined with the addition of Michael Bennett to a defensive front that already created the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks, drive this No. 1 NFC projection.
San Francisco 49ers: 7.9 wins
Ceiling: 8.8
Floor: 6.5
From 2015 through '17, San Francisco spent four first-round picks on defenders. In order for the 49ers to reach the top of their potential, they need those premium selections to provide returns on investment. Furthermore, the Niners' fourth-place schedule advantage was reduced with the trade of Khalil Mack to the Bears (one of their two unique NFC matchups).
Seattle Seahawks: 6.3 wins
Ceiling: 7.8
Floor: 4.0
This is the roster my model has the most questions about. Red flags abound, especially on defense. Essentially, the things that usually indicate what will happen in my model are the least certain for this team. Losing as many key pieces as the 'Hawks have in one year -- most notably, Jimmy Graham, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Michael Bennett and (for now) Earl Thomas -- makes predicting how they will play a lot tougher, hence the wide gap between ceiling and floor. Here's my favorite piece of good news: Russell Wilson is still elite and insulates the team with four wins on his own. And Doug Baldwin has a strong opportunity for a big year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4.1 wins
Ceiling: 4.7
Floor: 2.5
The Buccaneers have three extremely tough matchups to start the season during Jameis Winston's suspension: at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Steelers. One of the biggest red flags is the run game, as Tampa Bay ranked 27th last season. An inconsistent ground attack combined with Winston's style of play signals turnovers -- Tampa was tied for the sixth-most last season with 27. One positive note: The addition of Jason Pierre-Paul, among many other defenders, should help the Bucs get out of the sack cellar (SEE: a league-low 22 in 2017).
[www.nfl.com]
All-L.A. Super Bowl: Why Chargers, Rams will play for 2018 title
By Adam Schein
NFL.com Columnist
Published: Sept. 4, 2018
It was the great philosopher Coolio who once famously said, "Ain't no party like a West Coast party 'cause a West Coast party don't stop."
For the ultra-competitive and sure to be amazing 2018 NFL season, truer words have never been spoken.
I was waiting for the best defensive player in the NFL to sign a new contract. It's now a done deal for Aaron Donald with the Rams. So, I'm ready to call it -- the first-ever all Los Angeles Super Bowl.
It will be the Rams versus the Chargers in Super Bowl LIII.
We are officially California dreamin'.
I didn't sweat the Rams pick. Once Donald got his deserved megabuck contract, it was go time. I've been saying all offseason that once L.A. inked the best non-quarterback in the NFL, the Rams had the best roster in the NFL. I love everything about this club.
I don't want to hear that they built a "dream team" doomed to fail. The Rams had a robust yet savvy offseason. Brandin Cooks was the missing piece on offense to fly down field. Yes, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, and Ndamukong Suh were available in part because they can be knuckleheads. But they are great players. And here's the beauty of the Rams:
They can bring these cats in because of the culture and coaching. Sean McVay is a stud. Nobody is going to mess with the iconic Wade Phillips. And how is any offensive line going to block the Donald-Suh combination? Donald has been unstoppable for years. He's the most elite defender in the sport, bar none. And now Suh signs a one-year deal this offseason to join him? Wow.
And it's more than all right to be obsessed with the Rams' offense. McVay's play calling is next level. Last year was so exciting. This year will be better. Jared Goff is thriving under McVay. Cooks is dreamy. Todd Gurley is simply superb, returning to that level after the team finally jettisoned the atrocious Jeff Fisher, who ran what Gurley famously called a "middle school offense." Gurley will have the best season of his career this year.
The Rams ooze talent. They will have a top-nine offense and defense. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if they end up in the top five in both categories. The coaching and leadership will keep them focused with great expectations. And that has to be the case in the NFC, with six legit Super Bowl teams and 10-12 potential playoff teams. The NFC is loaded. The Falcons, Eagles, Vikings, and Packers all need to be accounted for. The Rams are the most talented team in football, though.
Now, I know the Chargers are the pick that will get more squints and head shakes. The critics will laugh that the Chargers find ways to lose, can't get over the hump, and missed three kicks as you were reading about the Rams.
And I get it.
But I love this Chargers team.
And I have questions throughout the AFC.
I know the Patriots' upside with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick is to win the Super Bowl. Obviously. It's the best dynasty in sports history. But that receiver core is so weak. And the issues that have bubbled up are legit.
The Steelers have contractual/social-media/looking-ahead/not-buttoned-up drama issues.
I love the Jaguars, but, you know, Blake Bortles. And L.A. vs. Jacksonville is my AFC title game.
I'm in on the Houston bounceback and I'm driving the Patrick Mahomes train.
But the Chargers have talent, upside, balance, and really, they are due. In talking to Chargers general manager Tom Telesco on our SiriusXM radio show "Schein on Sports," there is a belief this team knows how to win and will get over the hump. I asked Telesco how you change the culture of a team, and I found his answer to be so smart and comprehensive.
"I think a lot of it is just preparation," Telesco said. "A lot of it comes from the practice field. A lot of it comes from running different situations that you practice on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday and even on a Saturday walk-through about how you're going to handle different situations late in games. There are so many quality teams in the NFL, so many games in the fourth quarter come down to a possession here, a possession there.
A made kick, a missed kick. I thought last year we saw great improvement. I think having two pass rushers can help you close out games and having some weapons on offense can help you try to score late. So, yeah, I mean each year to me is unique to itself. I thought last year we improved there and we gotta keep it going this year."
It's practice and coaching and attention to detail and leadership. And the Chargers, in my opinion, have those things. They finally have "it" with the great talent.
Philip Rivers is still playing like a Hall of Famer. And make no mistake, he will be enshrined in Canton one day. Melvin Gordon is a great back. Keenan Allen is a machine at receiver. Mike Williams' rookie season was a lost cause, but he will break out this season. Joey Bosa is a star.
The Bosa and Melvin Ingram pairing is the best pass-rushing combination in the sport. Telesco could get arrested for stealing safety Derwin James with the 17th selection in the first round of this year's draft -- he's my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The defensive backfield is talented, even after the season-ending injuries suffered by Jason Verrett and Jaylen Watkins.
And let's be honest, the Chargers are due. Forever, the Chargers have felt cursed. Whatever could go wrong obviously would. Their mind-numbing losses are plentiful and soul crushing.
Heck, last year it seemed like they were the only team on the road for 16 weeks with the crowd at "home" in the franchise's first year in L.A. rooting for the opposing team! Anthony Lynn and his staff are the right guys to shift the culture and raise the bar on the accountability and expectations.
Over the course of five days in early May, I interviewed both Rams GM Les Snead and Telesco on our radio show. There was a pretty remarkable, legit, and similar confidence from both about their rosters and how to get to the promised land.
The Rams have the expectations. The Chargers will have to follow the Hollywood script. Assuming L.A. is paying attention. And the fans should start. I love this team.
I'm all in on both.
For the Super Bowl in Atlanta, we are officially California dreamin'.
[www.nfl.com]
By Cynthia Frelund
NFL Network Analytics Expert
Published: Sept. 4, 2018
I love win totals and these are the best I've got.
In order to create season-long win totals, I take data from the past 10 NFL campaigns and use it to forecast this year's outcomes. I make a model that takes into account trends, personnel and situations that were proven to lead to wins (or losses) in the past. Then I "play out the season" 320,000 times. Yes, it's kind of like "Madden" simulations. Yes, it adapts each year to account for the game's evolution. And yes, I am aware no team is winning 8.2 games ...
... but the reason our game is the best is the same reason we need fractions: parity. There are only 256 total regular-season games and there should be more 8-8 results. Look at the NFC East, where there's been a different division winner since 2004! So, take it for what it's worth: relative value. Then look to see how big the ceiling-to-floor range is -- if it's big, that means a team is projected for more close games.
You'll find win totals for every NFC team below. Check back on Wednesday for the AFC calculations.
Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 wins
Ceiling: 6.3
Floor: 3.7
David Johnson is unquestionably Arizona's offensive motor. With the stud running back leading the way in 2016, the Cardinals ranked third in total first downs gained. Last season, when Johnson was lost on opening day? Arizona plummeted to 17th. Still, even with the return of this scrimmage-yards monster, the Cards have offensive concerns. Questions at quarterback and receiver (NOTE: not Larry Fitzgerald, but the rest of the pass catchers) mean this offense projects to rank in the bottom third in total yards and touchdowns, according to my model.
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 wins
Ceiling: 8.9
Floor: 6.7
The Falcons should look more like the team from 2016 than 2017, due to the addition of first-round wideout Calvin Ridley, who is poised to demand the kind of attention from defenses that will open up more options in Atlanta's passing game and help disguise rushing plays. The NFC South could be a beneficiary of a very competitive NFC North, as my model indicates the latter division might cannibalize itself a bit, leaving a wild-card slot open for the rest of the conference. In other words, the Falcons have a very realistic chance of making a playoff run. So, why only 7.5 wins as the top-line number in this projection? Well, here's an honest peek behind the curtain: I am more bullish on the Falcons than this win total suggests. BUT, in order to trend toward double-digit wins, Atlanta must increase its offensive efficiency and play-calling diversity. That will come down to how well Steve Sarkisian performs in his second year running the offense.
Carolina Panthers: 7.2 wins
Ceiling: 7.7
Floor: 6.1
If this team had almost any other quarterback, the number would be a lot lower. The main red flag is the O-line. In the preseason -- and yes, I know it's the preseason -- Carolina's offensive front was pushed back and/or allowed pressure on the greatest percentage of passing downs in the NFL. The Panthers just added tackle depth by acquiring Corey Robinson in a trade with the Lions, but Robinson's a former seventh-round pick with eight career starts. In the past seven years, teams that have allowed push-back + pressures ranking in the bottom five during the regular season haven't made the playoffs once.
Chicago Bears: 8.0 wins
Ceiling: 9.9
Floor: 7.2
Before Khalil Mack was traded to the Bears, I noted that this defense seemed underrated. Last season, the unit ranked 10th in total defense and fourth in touchdowns allowed, so the arrow was already pointing up for 2018. Then, after the blockbuster trade for Mack, Chicago's win total increased by 1.6 games overnight (literally). Defensive stability will give this offense -- which ranked 30th in yards and 29th in points last year -- the support it needs to grow. If second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky can continue to develop under new head coach Matt Nagy, the Bears have a very realistic shot at the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys: 7.4 wins
Ceiling: 8.9
Floor: 6.7
Exceptional O-lines and running backs who earn first downs at the rate Ezekiel Elliott has posted in the past (he led the league with 6.1 per game in 2016) provide stability and greater win projections -- even with a lot of questions in the passing game.
Detroit Lions: 7.3 wins
Ceiling: 8.3
Floor: 5.2
When you don't have a reliable ground attack, the bottom falls out of your projected floor. There are plenty of stats to showcase the Lions' recent ineptitude in this area (ranking dead last in 2017 with an average of 76.3 rushing yards per game is one), but the free-agent addition of LeGarrette Blount and high draft picks spent on LG Frank Ragnow (first round) and RB Kerryon Johnson (second round) signal that new head coach Matt Patricia might be scheming to change things.
Green Bay Packers: 10.2 wins (projected NFC North champions)
Ceiling: 12.0
Floor: 9.1
Without Aaron Rodgers last season, the Packers averaged 7.8 fewer points per game. Over the past three seasons, Rodgers averaged a touchdown pass on 6.1 percent of his attempts (yes, this led the league in that span). Adding Jimmy Graham, who topped the NFL with 10 red-zone touchdowns last season, will help account for the loss of Jordy Nelson. The young secondary is a source of concern -- Green Bay allowed 30 TD passes last season (tied for 29th) and a 102.0 passer rating to opposing QBs (31st) -- but Rodgers' return is a much bigger positive indicator.
Los Angeles Rams: 9.2 wins (projected NFC West champions)
Ceiling: 10.9
Floor: 8.8
The Rams led the NFL in scoring during Sean McVay's debut campaign. While I don't have them projected to average 29.9 points per game again in Jared Goff's third year, their high-potential defense means they won't need to score as much in order to win. Also, according to my calculations, no individual defender drives a greater win-total uptick than Aaron Donald (1.9 games).
Minnesota Vikings: 9.9 wins (projected wild card)
Ceiling: 11.8
Floor: 8.4
The Vikings' defense projects to finish ranked no lower than third in my model when it comes to pressures, total yards and touchdowns allowed. But between their difficult schedule and an O-line that has shown early signs of ranking poorly in push-back + pressures, there are some red flags here. Especially with a new quarterback who has experienced issues with red-zone turnovers in the past.
New Orleans Saints: 10.1 wins (projected NFC South champions)
Ceiling: 12.9
Floor: 7.9
No team has a higher projected balance of efficiency on offense and defense than the Saints, as they rank in the top five in each of the following predicted metrics: rushing average, third-down conversion rate on both sides of the ball and defensive pressures. From Oct. 21 through Nov. 22, the Saints face the Ravens and Vikings on the road, and the Rams, Eagles and Falcons at home. This stretch is the source of New Orleans' massive floor-to-ceiling range.
New York Giants: 8.003 wins (projected wild card)
Ceiling: 9.7
Floor: 7.2
Last season, New York logged the fewest big plays in the league (68 combined rushes of 10-plus yards and completions of 20-plus). But after upgrading the O-line, drafting a running back with major pass-catching upside and getting back Odell Beckham Jr., the G-Men should experience a huge uptick in big plays. My model shows early signs that the Dec. 2 home game against the Bears could be what determines who goes to the playoffs and who is left on the outside looking in.
Philadelphia Eagles: 11.7 wins (projected NFC East champions)
Ceiling: 12.1
Floor: 8.8
At the publishing of this piece, it's unclear when Carson Wentz will return. We do know Nick Foles is the Week 1 starter at home against Atlanta. That shifted the Eagles' win projection from 65.5 percent to 54.6 percent in the opener. However, this was the only game out of Philly's first four that saw the win projection decrease by more than 3 percent. (Games against the Bucs, Colts and Titans all spit out convincing win percentages, regardless of who's under center.) Efficiency and diversity of plays on offense, combined with the addition of Michael Bennett to a defensive front that already created the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks, drive this No. 1 NFC projection.
San Francisco 49ers: 7.9 wins
Ceiling: 8.8
Floor: 6.5
From 2015 through '17, San Francisco spent four first-round picks on defenders. In order for the 49ers to reach the top of their potential, they need those premium selections to provide returns on investment. Furthermore, the Niners' fourth-place schedule advantage was reduced with the trade of Khalil Mack to the Bears (one of their two unique NFC matchups).
Seattle Seahawks: 6.3 wins
Ceiling: 7.8
Floor: 4.0
This is the roster my model has the most questions about. Red flags abound, especially on defense. Essentially, the things that usually indicate what will happen in my model are the least certain for this team. Losing as many key pieces as the 'Hawks have in one year -- most notably, Jimmy Graham, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Michael Bennett and (for now) Earl Thomas -- makes predicting how they will play a lot tougher, hence the wide gap between ceiling and floor. Here's my favorite piece of good news: Russell Wilson is still elite and insulates the team with four wins on his own. And Doug Baldwin has a strong opportunity for a big year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4.1 wins
Ceiling: 4.7
Floor: 2.5
The Buccaneers have three extremely tough matchups to start the season during Jameis Winston's suspension: at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Steelers. One of the biggest red flags is the run game, as Tampa Bay ranked 27th last season. An inconsistent ground attack combined with Winston's style of play signals turnovers -- Tampa was tied for the sixth-most last season with 27. One positive note: The addition of Jason Pierre-Paul, among many other defenders, should help the Bucs get out of the sack cellar (SEE: a league-low 22 in 2017).
[www.nfl.com]
All-L.A. Super Bowl: Why Chargers, Rams will play for 2018 title
By Adam Schein
NFL.com Columnist
Published: Sept. 4, 2018
It was the great philosopher Coolio who once famously said, "Ain't no party like a West Coast party 'cause a West Coast party don't stop."
For the ultra-competitive and sure to be amazing 2018 NFL season, truer words have never been spoken.
I was waiting for the best defensive player in the NFL to sign a new contract. It's now a done deal for Aaron Donald with the Rams. So, I'm ready to call it -- the first-ever all Los Angeles Super Bowl.
It will be the Rams versus the Chargers in Super Bowl LIII.
We are officially California dreamin'.
I didn't sweat the Rams pick. Once Donald got his deserved megabuck contract, it was go time. I've been saying all offseason that once L.A. inked the best non-quarterback in the NFL, the Rams had the best roster in the NFL. I love everything about this club.
I don't want to hear that they built a "dream team" doomed to fail. The Rams had a robust yet savvy offseason. Brandin Cooks was the missing piece on offense to fly down field. Yes, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, and Ndamukong Suh were available in part because they can be knuckleheads. But they are great players. And here's the beauty of the Rams:
They can bring these cats in because of the culture and coaching. Sean McVay is a stud. Nobody is going to mess with the iconic Wade Phillips. And how is any offensive line going to block the Donald-Suh combination? Donald has been unstoppable for years. He's the most elite defender in the sport, bar none. And now Suh signs a one-year deal this offseason to join him? Wow.
And it's more than all right to be obsessed with the Rams' offense. McVay's play calling is next level. Last year was so exciting. This year will be better. Jared Goff is thriving under McVay. Cooks is dreamy. Todd Gurley is simply superb, returning to that level after the team finally jettisoned the atrocious Jeff Fisher, who ran what Gurley famously called a "middle school offense." Gurley will have the best season of his career this year.
The Rams ooze talent. They will have a top-nine offense and defense. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if they end up in the top five in both categories. The coaching and leadership will keep them focused with great expectations. And that has to be the case in the NFC, with six legit Super Bowl teams and 10-12 potential playoff teams. The NFC is loaded. The Falcons, Eagles, Vikings, and Packers all need to be accounted for. The Rams are the most talented team in football, though.
Now, I know the Chargers are the pick that will get more squints and head shakes. The critics will laugh that the Chargers find ways to lose, can't get over the hump, and missed three kicks as you were reading about the Rams.
And I get it.
But I love this Chargers team.
And I have questions throughout the AFC.
I know the Patriots' upside with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick is to win the Super Bowl. Obviously. It's the best dynasty in sports history. But that receiver core is so weak. And the issues that have bubbled up are legit.
The Steelers have contractual/social-media/looking-ahead/not-buttoned-up drama issues.
I love the Jaguars, but, you know, Blake Bortles. And L.A. vs. Jacksonville is my AFC title game.
I'm in on the Houston bounceback and I'm driving the Patrick Mahomes train.
But the Chargers have talent, upside, balance, and really, they are due. In talking to Chargers general manager Tom Telesco on our SiriusXM radio show "Schein on Sports," there is a belief this team knows how to win and will get over the hump. I asked Telesco how you change the culture of a team, and I found his answer to be so smart and comprehensive.
"I think a lot of it is just preparation," Telesco said. "A lot of it comes from the practice field. A lot of it comes from running different situations that you practice on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday and even on a Saturday walk-through about how you're going to handle different situations late in games. There are so many quality teams in the NFL, so many games in the fourth quarter come down to a possession here, a possession there.
A made kick, a missed kick. I thought last year we saw great improvement. I think having two pass rushers can help you close out games and having some weapons on offense can help you try to score late. So, yeah, I mean each year to me is unique to itself. I thought last year we improved there and we gotta keep it going this year."
It's practice and coaching and attention to detail and leadership. And the Chargers, in my opinion, have those things. They finally have "it" with the great talent.
Philip Rivers is still playing like a Hall of Famer. And make no mistake, he will be enshrined in Canton one day. Melvin Gordon is a great back. Keenan Allen is a machine at receiver. Mike Williams' rookie season was a lost cause, but he will break out this season. Joey Bosa is a star.
The Bosa and Melvin Ingram pairing is the best pass-rushing combination in the sport. Telesco could get arrested for stealing safety Derwin James with the 17th selection in the first round of this year's draft -- he's my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The defensive backfield is talented, even after the season-ending injuries suffered by Jason Verrett and Jaylen Watkins.
And let's be honest, the Chargers are due. Forever, the Chargers have felt cursed. Whatever could go wrong obviously would. Their mind-numbing losses are plentiful and soul crushing.
Heck, last year it seemed like they were the only team on the road for 16 weeks with the crowd at "home" in the franchise's first year in L.A. rooting for the opposing team! Anthony Lynn and his staff are the right guys to shift the culture and raise the bar on the accountability and expectations.
Over the course of five days in early May, I interviewed both Rams GM Les Snead and Telesco on our radio show. There was a pretty remarkable, legit, and similar confidence from both about their rosters and how to get to the promised land.
The Rams have the expectations. The Chargers will have to follow the Hollywood script. Assuming L.A. is paying attention. And the fans should start. I love this team.
I'm all in on both.
For the Super Bowl in Atlanta, we are officially California dreamin'.
[www.nfl.com]
