Ok...I may be drawing kind of a fine line analysis here but I think it's worth comment.
Teams are wanting to run the ball more and use the RB in the passing game. In fact, I would say and prove the trend is moving towards the RB, not away...using the RB in more than pure running plays.
Here is how I see it.
1) Passing play % will always eclipse running play % with a sizable portion of that percentage including passes to the RB. Per teamrankings.com, the pass to run percentage in the NFL was 61.16% pass 38.84% run in 2018. That is an increase over the 3 year moving average of 58.77% pass 41.23% run. But what does that increase "look like" when reflecting RBs?
2) Per NFL.com, in 2012, 75 players caught 50+ passes. Of those 75, 6 were RBs. In 2017, 76 players caught 50+ passes. Of those 76, 14 were RBs. So as you can see, while the percentage of pass plays have increased, RBs have more than doubled in that group. So to me, the increase in passing plays in the last 5 years is attributable to throwing to the running back, often behind the line of scrimmage.
2) It used to be that there was just a few RBs would have the skill to be the #1 RB and a receiver too. Roger Craig...Marshall Faulk...Steven Jackson...LeSeain McCoy. You typically had one RB who ran and one RB who caught. That strategy gave away the play call. Now, they need to do both...the good ones anyway.
3) It's the RB who will continue to get more passes to keep that percentage ratio. The multi-purpose RB is in vogue and it will continue...just look at the draft in the last 4 years.
4) The term it's a passing league has come about because, yes, there has been a migration to passing but I think it is exacerbated by the fact it's become more of a
"downfield" passing league, including TEs. The passes to RBs, IMO, are often variations of a running play.
Running the football has become vital. Ask Sean Peyton with his two headed monster in New Orleans. With today's athleticism on defense and size, you need a RB to protect your QB. What are swing passes and screens? A pass yes...but more of moving the RB out in open space.
Goff made the Pro Bowl, in a significant way IMO, because of Gurley. Gurley had almost 25% of Goff's yards. And, I believe this will continue in 2018.
Saying it's a "unabashed passing league" can be a bit misleading because I think many look at that as a vertical passing game. IMO, we are likely to have capped out at that part of the game. The passing percentage may stay high, but I believe it will be because RBs are bearing more of the load.
I don't necessary think unabashed passing league is an accurate description. To me, most RB passes are just another way to "run" the ball. And with the need to protect $30 million investments, I think you'll see more and more RBs carrying the "passing" load.
And...I'll think you'll see the RB salaries continue to escalate at the expense of WRs and, eventually QBs. Todd Gurley is the start, not the exception.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/02/2018 06:32AM by jemach.
