Quote
dzrams.
The other part of my problem is the NFL Network's Analytics Expert is saying the exact opposite here:
There is a Premium on Interior PressureI like this particular analysis because 1) it goes into depth in metric calculation and how she arrived at her conclusions, 2) it references the recent NFL offensive trend of an increase in designed shorter passes over the past three seasons, and 3) it asked the input of NFL coaches, scouts, and front office execs and had those insiders verify the results. IOW, lot's of credibility here.
From that article
Quote
I used 10 seasons of game data and characterized what happened on each snap (from offensive and defensive formations to play outcomes). With my goal of contextualizing the play of pass rushers and corners in mind, I asked 27 coaches, front-office executives, scouts and players to help me interpret the relevant traditional stats, advanced stats and observable video data (game film). I used what I learned from them to help minimize error and maximize "actual football reasons" in my model. Then I took the benchmarks, insights and results back to these same 27 people to verify and refine my findings.
Two key parts of this huge model add specific context to the Rams' 2018 defense: factoring in an opponent's ability to run the football and accounting for the impact of interior versus perimeter defensive pressure in relationship to cornerback play.
Let's start by going deeper on the increased value of interior pass-rush production overall, then lay out just how disruptive Donald has been.
1) There is a premium on interior pressure -- and Donald is a monster
My 10-year model shows that over the past three seasons, offensive trends -- like an increase in designed shorter passes (with intentional shorter times to throw) -- have been accompanied by an increase in unsuccessful plays caused by inside defensive pressures. By evaluating pass plays that have resulted in first downs and touchdowns, my model shows that disruption in the middle of the offensive line is increasingly associated with fewer offensive conversions and points scored.
In order to interpret the impact of any one player or part of the defense, it is important for me to account for their relationship with the rest of the defense while keeping it all in the context of the game (score, down, distance, time, matchups, etc.). When discussing quantified findings on the disruption caused by interior versus perimeter pressure, my coach inputs were most interested in the uptick in chances for interior pressures to be disruptive based on offensive play-calling, and the elevated relationship between interior pressure and unsuccessful offensive drives (those resulting in punts or turnovers).
Categorizing downs by situation reveals that there has been about a 23 percent increase in the league average over the past three seasons of teams throwing short passes at times where, in the past, they called longer passes or rushed (first and second downs and third-down plays with less than 5 yards to go). This replacement has afforded interior rushers a greater volume of plays with which to be opportunistic. Some of the people I asked for input said this is because teams are leveraging intentionally shorter passes to nullify dominant edge rushers, and others added that it's due to the increased influence of college-style spread offenses being implemented in the NFL. Shorter passes are considered higher-probability passes. The big takeaway here is that, in a time when defenses are facing more short passing attempts, interior pressure is associated with a 27 percent decrease in offensive conversions.
Let me say this again in a different way, because it's tricky. Think of a drive as a unit that reflects all of the parts that make up each down. There has been an increase in shorter passes attempted, and when defenses cause interior pressure on opposing quarterbacks -- especially on these short passes -- the whole drive gets stopped 27 percent more often than it did in the previous seven years. Stopping drives more often means less scoring, and so there is an increased emphasis on interior pass-rushing production.
For Donald specifically, over the past three seasons, he has the most overall pressures (by at least 20 per year) and the most disruptions resulting in non-conversions of any interior pass rusher in each year. It's easy to look to his traditional stats -- he has averaged almost 10 sacks per campaign since being drafted in 2014, while pacing the league in tackles for loss and forced fumbles in that span -- or simply watch any game he's played to see his impact, but part of what makes him worth setting market records for lies in the lengths opposing offenses have to go to when trying to stop him. One example: On passing downs last season, Donald made contact with at least two opposing offensive players on the greatest percentage of snaps (83.5 percent) of any interior defender in the league.
Donald's performance has also helped offset a definitive lack of consistent perimeter pressure from the team as a whole.
