For Todd Gurley and other top NFL backs, there are no guaranteesHow Le’Veon Bell’s contract woes in Pittsburgh could impact the Ram star’s futureRYAN KARTJE
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Last Monday, as the NFL’s franchise tag negotiations deadline came and went, Le’Veon Bell held his ground. For the second straight year, the Steelers and their transcendent, 26-year-old running back failed to agree on terms of a long-term contract.
Bell, with his 3,830 all-purpose yards over the past two seasons, wanted to be paid like a running back and receiver. The Steelers refused, offering no more than $10 million guaranteed.
So, again, Bell resigned himself to playing under the tag – this time, for a guaranteed $14.5 million – before entering unrestricted free agency in 2019. All signs point to this season being his last in black and yellow.
His restraint, with so much money on the table, was significant. In the bleak market Bell and other running backs currently face, he’s betting on himself. In reality, it was Bell’s only hope of securing the long-term deal he deserves.
Even so, it could be a tough sell in a league that increasingly views veteran running backs as expendable. Only three of the league’s top 11 rushers weren’t on rookie deals last season. Since the advent of the rookie wage scale in 2011, the market at the position has been steadily free falling, as most of the league’s best backs are stuck under comparatively cheap deals through the majority of their prime.
(Here’s how sad this situation has become: The six-year deal that former Rams running back Steven Jackson signed in 2008 would currently rank as the largest guaranteed contract for an NFL running back. That was a decade ago!)
Second contracts for running backs, when they are agreed upon, are never what they seem. Given the high turnover at the position, non-guaranteed money routinely goes uncollected, meaning total salary figures frequently mislead. DeMarco Murray, who retired this month after being cut by the Titans, barely collected half of the 4-year, $25.5 million contract he signed with Tennessee before the 2016 season.
In Bell’s case, the same may have proven true in Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ offer would have allowed them to cut ties after one year, saving $4.5 million they would’ve otherwise spent on the tag. If not this year, the team would have an exit strategy in each season that followed, with the assumption that Bell eventually wears down. Considering he led the NFL in total touches (406) last season and missed 14 of 32 games with injuries before that, it’s a reasonable concern.
Nonetheless, Bell’s decision to turn down a 5-year, $70 million offer, one that would’ve exceeded the current largest deal for an NFL running back by nearly $30 million, is certain to reverberate around the league. At a position where only four players are paid more than $7 million on average, Bell’s refusal is an about-face. Is the next class of elite, versatile backs worth more than what the position is paid right now? As Bell enters the open market, his next move will set a baseline for how the next generation of elite running backs will be paid.
Le'Veon Bell@LeVeonBell
to all my Steeler fans, my desire always has been to retire a Steeler...both sides worked extremely hard today to make that happen, but the NFL is a hard business at times...to the fans that had hope, I’m sorry we let youu down but trust me, 2018 will be my best season to date...“If I’m representing any of these top young running backs, I’m taking the position that the offer Le’Veon Bell turned down is a part of the marketplace,” says Joel Corry, a former agent and salary cap expert. “Teams don’t like to look at what’s being forecasted. They like to go on what’s already in existence. When he enters free agency, (Bell) is the litmus test.”
Across the country, one of those backs is already watching Bell’s situation from afar. Todd Gurley is still under contract in Los Angeles through 2019, the fifth year of his rookie deal. When asked directly about his contract future, Gurley has brushed off questions and refused to engage in the past.
But after a campaign in which he finished second in MVP voting and was named NFL Offensive Player of the Year, those questions are coming up more frequently. And since, Gurley has quietly signaled where he stands.
Last Tuesday, at the Gatorade Athlete of the Year Awards, Gurley was asked about Bell’s contract situation.
“I definitely stand behind him and definitely support him,” Gurley told the NFL Network. “I wanted him to get that long-term deal, but unfortunately it didn’t work out. He’s playing on the tag for the second time, which is not bad at all, but you know you just want that security. It’s definitely a sad situation for a guy to be a top-three back since he’s came into the league and put in the work and can’t even get the money that he deserves. Definitely a sad situation.”
Less than two weeks earlier, Gurley told a TMZ cameraman that a “lockout” might be the only way the NFL starts offering fully guaranteed contracts, which are commonplace in every other major sport, but basically non-existent in the NFL. At a camp in Santa Monica, he told the L.A. Times that NFL players were “just mad about NBA contracts right now, that’s all.”
No one should be more upset than NFL running backs, who, in spite of their perceived decline in value, still shoulder a significant load on most offenses across the league.
Gurley’s transcendent 2017 season was an ideal example. While he accounted for 36 percent of the Rams total offensive yards and 42 percent of the touchdowns the team scored in 2017, Gurley, at $3.769 million, cost just 2.3 percent of the Rams’ salary cap. In 2018, that raises to just 2.5 percent.
He’s worth far more than that in L.A.. As is Bell in Pittsburgh. It’s the latter, though, who will set the precedent next offseason – along with Cardinals all-purpose back David Johnson, who will also be an unrestricted free agent.
Both will be pushing for as much guaranteed money as possible. How far they’re willing to go will set a baseline for what Gurley will demand after.
As Gurley continues to ascend in Sean McVay’s offense, those demands will only grow. In all likelihood, he’ll be looking to reset the market at the position. But with so many other negotiations to juggle until then, it’s hard to know what the Rams will be capable of offering.
Decisions will need to be made on Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and Marcus Peters, to name a few. A huge chunk of cap space will need to be earmarked for Jared Goff’s extension a year after Gurley. With so many variables, it’s not unreasonable to think Gurley could find himself in the same spot Bell is now, with a decision to make on his future.
For now, there’s no need to worry. Gurley is in the middle of his prime, the most marketable player on a team that’s not exactly heavy on starpower. Thanks to a one-year rain delay, Gurley’s rookie contract expires just before the Rams are set to open their new stadium in Inglewood. And for sales purposes, letting your star walk ahead of the big stadium move isn’t exactly great for business.
Plenty can happen before then. But with Bell’s refusal, the first courageous move in correcting the running back market has finally been made. And for that, Gurley and the rest of the league’s top running backs should be eternally grateful.
