Perhaps we’re overthinking this?
How about this perspective from strictly AD’s financial pov? Strictly financial, mind you.
Couple of things that the AD camp, and particularly his agents, should be seriously thinking about.
1) If AD refuses to extend when offered something in the $20-22 million range with $60-70 million guaranteed, then they are cutting off their noses to spite their faces. Meaning that the lost income via even just the 5th year option salary scheduled for this year vs what could have been earned via extension can never be made up. Never. AD stands to lose millions by delaying now, no matter what he ultimately settles for.
Here’s the math, by way of explanation. If AD doesn’t extend he earns merely $6.9 this year. If he extends for, say, $22 million, then he would earn $15.1 million more. Honestly, ask yourself if you really believe that AD will be able to ultimately negotiate more than an extra $3 million per year for 5 years to offset this “loss”? Me neither. And that’s just the ‘18 season! The shortfall keeps compounding through ‘19-‘20. Checkmate.
2) AD and his agents are taking a terrible chance by risking serious injury prior to his signing the inevitable extension. Again, such an injury would cost him irretrievable millions. More millions than he could ever recover in a subsequent extension.
These are 2 completely avoidable risks that I think responsible agents should be driving home to AD.
As an aside, I doubt that the guaranteed amount is a major sticking point. I suspect that the Rams are willing to agree to a 5-6 year extension with $60-70 million guaranteed. I can’t prove it, of course, but it seems like common sense, doesn’t it?
Bottom line? Prudence dictates that AD should accept something in the $100-120 million for 5 years with $65 million guaranteed. And he should do so before August 7th, his required reporting date to secure qualifying eligibility for future UFA status.
To do otherwise seems quite reckless, don’t you think?
