My thoughts on the "remodel"
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Let me preface by saying I know as much as the next fan, and these are only my opinions.
1. This isn't a tank. A healthy Stafford, Kupp and AD almost ensures that. Typically a tank happens when you have no starting quality QB.
And for those asking to trade Stafford and/or AD. Can't happen. Stafford would count for like 74m in dead cap. AD would count for 41m in dead money.
2. I think remodel only works for the offense, the defense looks like a full blown rebuild. I'll go into detail on both sides of the ball down the line.
3. What the Rams are doing shouldn't shock anyone. We all knew this was coming, sooner or later. I think Snead/McVay was hoping it would be later, but they determined now was the time, and if I'm being honest I agree. Why? Because of cap limitations and the current roster construction, this team wasn't going to compete for a SB title in 2023. Is the NFC wide open? Yes to some degree, but there are some very good teams out there. And the AFC is absolutely stacked.
Another thing to remember is that the Rams have been remodeling or retooling or reloading since they started winning back in 2017. They lost Peters and Talib, they have lost Fowler, they have lost Woods, they have lost Gurley. They know how to navigate these waters.
One last thing on the timing of the remodel: I think the loss of Von Miller really threw the team off. They pivoted from him to Wagner (which seemed to me like a bandaid) and ARobinson. Neither seemed like fits to me. And I didn't like the Robinson signing from day 1. They needed a CB and and edge rusher and OL help. Not a 2nd ILBer and a #2 WR.
4. Onto the cuts and trade:
Wagner - like i just got done saying, he always seemed like a short term player from the get go. I think they would have liked to keep him, but wanted a restructure and he wasn't interested, so they parted company. This doesn't bother me so much, as I think Jones is an up and comer and probably learned a ton from Wagner.
Floyd - I'm OK with this one as well to an extent. He was gonna count 22m against the cap this year, which would have been the 5th biggest number this year amongst edge rushers, and frankly isn't worth that number. The problem i have is they restructured him last year to gain 12m in cap relief making the pain this year alot worse than it had to be. This lends me into thinking the Rams thought they were keeping Miller, who would team with Floyd and AD to form a heck of a pass rush trio with Ramsey on the backend. Why restructure just to blow it up the following year?
Ramsey - I've never been a fan of this guy personally. Love his game, not a fan of his personality. His days as the best cover corner are over, he apparently wants a new contract, and I think the Rams did not want a pouting Ramsey on a team that may struggle this year in that locker room. He'll be great in that Fangio defense in Miami, and is still one of the best run defending DBs in the game. He will absolutely missed on the field.
As far as the compensation. I wanted a later 1st or 2 2nds, but I get the 3rd if he does indeed want a new contract.
Hunter Long from my 2021 Big Board: 85. Hunter Long - TE - BC - 6'-5" 255 lbs. - Good long speed and a seam splitter. Size mismatch in the middle of the field. Good, soft hands. Not physical enough right now as a blocker. Receiving TE.
He was also my 4th rated TE in the draft. There is some upside with him and the Rams need TE depth.
The 3rd round pick in this years draft is a pretty solid spot. A 2nd would have been amazing, but a 3rd is OK.
The last bit of compensation for Ramsey was a SB ring.
The Rams also kinda took a page out of the Patriots playbook. Get rid of them too soon rather than too late.
5. The offense remodel:
I don't expect the Rams to make a splash signing on the offensive side of the ball. I'd like to see Coleman Shelton back as long as its short and reasonable. I don't think OBJ is coming back. A) He'll want too much, and
His best days may be behind him. I also expect Mayfield to leave. I really think the Rams want to focus on offense this draft and will look at OG/OC early in the draft. I also think they will look hard at RB/TE/WR if the right player is there. For example, if a top TE slides into their lap in the 2nd, I could see them pull the trigger. I absolutely think that trading for Long will not stopping them from drafting a TE at some point. A RB like Gibbs might make McVay salivate, esp if he is looking for a Gurley-lite type that can be a HR hitter, is super dangerous in the open field and is a heck of a pass catcher that can be used all over the field. I have no idea what will happen with Robinson, but if he leaves one way or another, then WR becomes a major need.
6. The defense rebuild:
Man is it going to be a tough year for Ramsdude and everyone that didn't like the Rams defense last season. Actually, I think it is going to be a hard year for everyone watching this defense. The way the Rams drafted 2 Saf last year and the fact that the Rams keep losing their saf as soon as they come up for FA makes me think Rapp and Scott are gone. I really want 2 defenders back, Scott being one, and Gaines being the other.
So the CBs are: Rochell, Durant, Kendrick and Shaun Jolly. The Saf are: Fuller, Yeast and Lake.
That is a ton of youth that is going to be asked to cover WRs for hrs at a time, because the Rams have AD as a pass rusher and thats it. Its going to take Morris' best job to keep these guys competitive.
As far as the front 7, AD is a proven GOAT, I think they are OK in the middle with Jones and Hummel/Rozeboom. But the issue will be with the other 2 DL and the edge rushers. I hope they keep Gaines somehow. Hoecht flashed, Hardy is raw, as is Keir Thomas. Not a ton of production or even snaps in this group. They have already lost 15 sacks from the combo of Wags/Floyd, 2 from Ramsey and potentially 4 more if Gaines leaves...That leaves around 11 sacks coming back next year. Ouch.
I expect the D to get some love this offseason as far as FA, but it won't be splashy either. I'm hoping they retain at least Gaines, hopefully Scott. There should be some bargain edge rushers out there this year. I think Edge/DL/CB gets a long look in the draft. I don't think 2nd round, but one of the 3s could be in play. Esp for a CB. I think the defense gets the full-on rebuild next offseason, with the cap space and in the draft.
FYI: Spotrac has Gaines valued at a 4 year deal averaging 7.7m, that is doable, Rapp is 3 years averaging 10m, thats too much, Scott has no valuation, ARob 3 years avg 8, Gay 4 yrs avg 5.1
8. I don't think the remodel will take as long as some people are thinking. Next year might be down, but I think they can compete in 2024. The only question really for me is what happens after 2024. Stafford gone? AD gone? Then it gets complicated. Because I think they win enough to lose out on at least the top 2 QBs. So right now, thats Williams and Maye. After that, there are some nice prospects like Ewers and Penix Jr. and McCarthy.
Don't waste your time looking back, you're not going that way. - Ragnar Lothbrok
1. This isn't a tank. A healthy Stafford, Kupp and AD almost ensures that. Typically a tank happens when you have no starting quality QB.
And for those asking to trade Stafford and/or AD. Can't happen. Stafford would count for like 74m in dead cap. AD would count for 41m in dead money.
2. I think remodel only works for the offense, the defense looks like a full blown rebuild. I'll go into detail on both sides of the ball down the line.
3. What the Rams are doing shouldn't shock anyone. We all knew this was coming, sooner or later. I think Snead/McVay was hoping it would be later, but they determined now was the time, and if I'm being honest I agree. Why? Because of cap limitations and the current roster construction, this team wasn't going to compete for a SB title in 2023. Is the NFC wide open? Yes to some degree, but there are some very good teams out there. And the AFC is absolutely stacked.
Another thing to remember is that the Rams have been remodeling or retooling or reloading since they started winning back in 2017. They lost Peters and Talib, they have lost Fowler, they have lost Woods, they have lost Gurley. They know how to navigate these waters.
One last thing on the timing of the remodel: I think the loss of Von Miller really threw the team off. They pivoted from him to Wagner (which seemed to me like a bandaid) and ARobinson. Neither seemed like fits to me. And I didn't like the Robinson signing from day 1. They needed a CB and and edge rusher and OL help. Not a 2nd ILBer and a #2 WR.
4. Onto the cuts and trade:
Wagner - like i just got done saying, he always seemed like a short term player from the get go. I think they would have liked to keep him, but wanted a restructure and he wasn't interested, so they parted company. This doesn't bother me so much, as I think Jones is an up and comer and probably learned a ton from Wagner.
Floyd - I'm OK with this one as well to an extent. He was gonna count 22m against the cap this year, which would have been the 5th biggest number this year amongst edge rushers, and frankly isn't worth that number. The problem i have is they restructured him last year to gain 12m in cap relief making the pain this year alot worse than it had to be. This lends me into thinking the Rams thought they were keeping Miller, who would team with Floyd and AD to form a heck of a pass rush trio with Ramsey on the backend. Why restructure just to blow it up the following year?
Ramsey - I've never been a fan of this guy personally. Love his game, not a fan of his personality. His days as the best cover corner are over, he apparently wants a new contract, and I think the Rams did not want a pouting Ramsey on a team that may struggle this year in that locker room. He'll be great in that Fangio defense in Miami, and is still one of the best run defending DBs in the game. He will absolutely missed on the field.
As far as the compensation. I wanted a later 1st or 2 2nds, but I get the 3rd if he does indeed want a new contract.
Hunter Long from my 2021 Big Board: 85. Hunter Long - TE - BC - 6'-5" 255 lbs. - Good long speed and a seam splitter. Size mismatch in the middle of the field. Good, soft hands. Not physical enough right now as a blocker. Receiving TE.
He was also my 4th rated TE in the draft. There is some upside with him and the Rams need TE depth.
The 3rd round pick in this years draft is a pretty solid spot. A 2nd would have been amazing, but a 3rd is OK.
The last bit of compensation for Ramsey was a SB ring.
The Rams also kinda took a page out of the Patriots playbook. Get rid of them too soon rather than too late.
5. The offense remodel:
I don't expect the Rams to make a splash signing on the offensive side of the ball. I'd like to see Coleman Shelton back as long as its short and reasonable. I don't think OBJ is coming back. A) He'll want too much, and
His best days may be behind him. I also expect Mayfield to leave. I really think the Rams want to focus on offense this draft and will look at OG/OC early in the draft. I also think they will look hard at RB/TE/WR if the right player is there. For example, if a top TE slides into their lap in the 2nd, I could see them pull the trigger. I absolutely think that trading for Long will not stopping them from drafting a TE at some point. A RB like Gibbs might make McVay salivate, esp if he is looking for a Gurley-lite type that can be a HR hitter, is super dangerous in the open field and is a heck of a pass catcher that can be used all over the field. I have no idea what will happen with Robinson, but if he leaves one way or another, then WR becomes a major need.6. The defense rebuild:
Man is it going to be a tough year for Ramsdude and everyone that didn't like the Rams defense last season. Actually, I think it is going to be a hard year for everyone watching this defense. The way the Rams drafted 2 Saf last year and the fact that the Rams keep losing their saf as soon as they come up for FA makes me think Rapp and Scott are gone. I really want 2 defenders back, Scott being one, and Gaines being the other.
So the CBs are: Rochell, Durant, Kendrick and Shaun Jolly. The Saf are: Fuller, Yeast and Lake.
That is a ton of youth that is going to be asked to cover WRs for hrs at a time, because the Rams have AD as a pass rusher and thats it. Its going to take Morris' best job to keep these guys competitive.
As far as the front 7, AD is a proven GOAT, I think they are OK in the middle with Jones and Hummel/Rozeboom. But the issue will be with the other 2 DL and the edge rushers. I hope they keep Gaines somehow. Hoecht flashed, Hardy is raw, as is Keir Thomas. Not a ton of production or even snaps in this group. They have already lost 15 sacks from the combo of Wags/Floyd, 2 from Ramsey and potentially 4 more if Gaines leaves...That leaves around 11 sacks coming back next year. Ouch.
I expect the D to get some love this offseason as far as FA, but it won't be splashy either. I'm hoping they retain at least Gaines, hopefully Scott. There should be some bargain edge rushers out there this year. I think Edge/DL/CB gets a long look in the draft. I don't think 2nd round, but one of the 3s could be in play. Esp for a CB. I think the defense gets the full-on rebuild next offseason, with the cap space and in the draft.
FYI: Spotrac has Gaines valued at a 4 year deal averaging 7.7m, that is doable, Rapp is 3 years averaging 10m, thats too much, Scott has no valuation, ARob 3 years avg 8, Gay 4 yrs avg 5.1
8. I don't think the remodel will take as long as some people are thinking. Next year might be down, but I think they can compete in 2024. The only question really for me is what happens after 2024. Stafford gone? AD gone? Then it gets complicated. Because I think they win enough to lose out on at least the top 2 QBs. So right now, thats Williams and Maye. After that, there are some nice prospects like Ewers and Penix Jr. and McCarthy.
Don't waste your time looking back, you're not going that way. - Ragnar Lothbrok
