July 15, 2020 08:51PM | Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 16,078
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Rampage2K-
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zn
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Rampage2K-
Well according to a story above one of the models says only need about 20%...... at the rate we're going we'll be there soon
You have to read that whole article. One person, aware that she is defying established science, says it could be 20%.
The other scientists in the same article say they doubt that. [
ramsrule.com] There is not going to be any well-established scientific consensus based on one outlier study.
Have to watch out for wishful thinking. If you take an outlier like that and act like it's well-established truth and you're wrong (which is the greatest likelihood) then the results would be catastrophic.
And even 20% is massive. There were about 136, 000 dead on 3.3 M known infections. 20% of the population is more than 65 M. That's almost 20 times 3.3 M. What if the death rate keeps pace? that would be 20 times 136,000 which is nearly 2.7 M.
For example there was no vaccine for the Spanish Flu. It took 3 years to go away and killed millions.
The real point of that article, which I notice people are missing, is that our behavior determines how high or low the infection rate is, and that means masks and social distancing and washing hands etc.
My point is no one knows ......especially some Gov of Mississippi
The Gov. did not claim to "know," he only claims to follow what the science says. My point is that scientists who study this have massive numbers of studies on this and all he is doing is following their advice. No Gov. who has lives at stake is going to go "ah but one study out there is different from the others, and though it's just theory, let's follow that one."
And again you have to read the article. What it ACTUALLY concludes is that
"the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done."Again...wishful thinking is not going to help us beat this thing.
"Not everyone involved in 100 mph head collisions dies! so let's try it."
And they DO know what works---that's why they said "there's no mystery."
...
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/15/2020 08:57PM by zn.
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