First, this tidbit:
What is particularly interesting to note is that fifth round picks who re-sign with the same team outperformed round four picks who re-signed with the same team in terms of guaranteed money in their second contracts. This also occurred with rounds seven and six. What this suggests is that there is a drop off after round three where there is not much of a difference between a fourth round pick and seventh round pick.I cannot agree more with this theory. I have been saying this for a bit now because the more I work on the draft and the more I work on the later rounds, the more I realized that after the top 100 or so, it becomes an exercise in futility. Why is it futile? Because as so many "fans" and "websites or talking heads" want to grade every draft or every pick and they love to use terms like reaches or steals, when in reality, once you get to 101ish, it becomes a beauty in the eye of beholder thing. Teams need to identify scheme fits. team fits, character fits, etc.
Keep that in mind when the Rams draft Joe Nobody has Heard of in the 5th round. He fits exactly what they are looking for. After pick 100, who cares what round he was drafted in?
The other stuff I wanted to touch on that has been touched on in other posts, but I'd throw them all together with some additional thoughts:
1. Drafting for the present, with an eye on the future like the Rams do only works when you are drafting guys that fit what you want them to do or what you think you can turn him into. This only works if the current coaching staff is around long enough to coach a 4-7th round player into that guy. If you are constantly changing coaching staffs or FOs, this will not work. THe Rams are stable under McSnead. Very stable.
2. The Rams clearly look for certain characteristics in prospects that I am not certain other teams do, of at least value those characteristics more. Team captains are huge. I'd guess the reason why is that team captains usually become captains because they gain the respect of their teammates. How? Work ethic, personality, intelligence and at least a fair amount of skill. Team captains don't have to be the baddest dogs in the yard. But they do have to have the best work ethic.
Other things they appreciate: Senior bowl and Shrine bowl participants. Again, mature guys that are maybe not the most physical freaks in the draft, but are solid players that have found ways to be successful, regardless athletic talent.
Good interviewers. Sounds weird, but I stubbled on this after the Rams drafted Jefferson and Akers. Multiple reports stated both those players hit their interviews with teams out of the park. I'm guessing it has to do with intelligence? I dunno.
3. The Rams do a decent job of balancing risk players with a steadier player with a lower ceiling )at least athletically) Look at 2019: 4-7 rounds - Gaines, Edwards and Scott were safe picks with perceived low ceilings, Dakota Allen was more of a risk. Teams need to be able to draft the steadier players with perceived lower ceilings and coach them up because the riskier players are riskier for a reason, and you just cannot afford to have these guys all flame out. The 3 steady guys from that draft all started in the SB, the risk? Well I think he is out of the NFL.
Look at Ernest Jones: Team captain, and a guy the Rams pegged as the best team leader in the draft. Limited athletically, but the 28th best tackler amongst all college football LBers. Drafted outside the top 100 (barely) and what does he do? Well starts halfway through the season he is starting and absolutely balled out in the SB. Everyone screamed reach. I thought it was high for him. Doesn't matter, the Rams identified again what they wanted, drafted him and profited. And I have a feeling they will do it again this year. And fans and "experts" will still scream reach. lol. Maybe even me.
Don't waste your time looking back, you're not going that way. - Ragnar Lothbrok
