Actuatly, that's an opinion, not reality.
According to this article [
www.arrowheadpride.com] , finding a reliable starter in the 2nd round is a crap shoot and after that it tails off rapidly. (This article is from 2015. If anyone has more current numbers shoot me a PM and I'll post an update.)
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)Listed below are all of the Rams draft picks from 2017 thru 2021, with 'consistent starters' highlighted.
2nd
Gerald Everett (current starting TE for SEA),
Taylor Rapp (S),
Cam Akers (RB ) ,
Van Jefferson (WR), Tutu Atwell (WR)
3rd
Cooper Kupp (WR),
John Johnson (current starting S for CLE), Joe Noteboom (OT),
Darrell Henderson (RB ),
David Long (8 starts in 10 games at CB in 2021), Bobby Evans (OT), Terrell Lewis (OLB ), Terrell Burgess (S),
Ernest Jones (LB )
4th Josh Reynolds (WR), Samson Ebukam (OLB ),
Brian Allen (C),
John Franklin-Myers (current starter at DT for the Jets),
Greg Gaines (DT), Brycen Hopkins (TE), Bobby Brown (DL), Robert Rochelle (CB ), Jacob Harris (WR)
5th Micah Kiser (LB ), Obo Okoronkwo (LB ),
David Edwards( OG), Earnest Brown (DE)
6th Tanzel Smart (DT), Sam Rogers (FB ), John Kelly (RB ), Jamil Demby (OT),
Sebastian Joseph-Day (DL), Trevon Young (DE),
Jordan Fuller (S)
7th Ejuan Price (OLB ), Travin Howard (LB ), Justin Lawler (DE), Nick Scott (S), Dakota Allen (LB ), Clay Johnston (LB ),
Sam Sloman (K), Tremayne Anchrum (OL), Jake Funk (RB ), Ben Skowronek (WR), Chris Garrett (OLB )
I count 15 consistent starters out of 45 picks, or 33% overall. The league average, considering both the positions drafted and the round where they were picked, is 8.5.
It's 80% in the second round where those positions average 44%.
56% hit rate in the 3rd round compared to the league average of 29% for those positions. This doesn't even count the fact the Noteboom would be starting if Whit retired after his first contract with the Rams (or the likelihood that he'll be starting the rest of his career), nor does it factor in the possibility that Evans and/or Lewis and/or Burgess could still develop into starters.
33% hit rate in the 4th compared to the average of 25% for those positions. (Once Rochelle claims a starting job the Rams hit rate goes to 44%. Is Reynolds gonna start for the Lions? If so the number goes up to 56%.)
25% in the 5th, 50% if anyone wants to count Kiser. The league average is 7%.
29% in the 6th compared to the league average of 11%.
0% in the 7th ... so far. Still time for Howard, Lawler, Scott, Anchrum, Funk, Skowronek, and/or Garrett to do something. If even one of them develops into a consistent starter that would be a hit rate of 9%, above the league average of 4%.
AlbaNY_Ram
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/27/2021 07:05AM by AlbaNY_Ram.
