1st Rd QBs are not a crap shoot

I remember reading an analysis article on 1st and 2nd round "skill" draft picks vs linemen draft picks. It showed that there was a 60% chance that the skill picks would pan out whereas the non-skilled picks only had a 40% chance. It's been a while and maybe I've forgotten the exact percentages but it showed that taking the skill positions had a greater chance of the players grow into starters vs. the non-skill positions.