Quote
spagsbacker
Yeah, I actually don't hate the Ramsey trade, as I have liked the idea of having 2 stars on D and filling in the gaps with mid rd type draft picks and it has worked pretty well, especially with Staley replacing Wade. I am still uncertain that Ramsey is worth the $, but I understand it. Im sure I have made a list in the past of what I consider hits and misses, but the fact of the matter is you don't really find any stars in the mid round range, aside from an occasional Kupp who is good but not sure quite a star, and that was all the way back in 2015! Ok, you asked for it, lets take a closer look from 2015 -2019 rounds 2-4. These are my grades at this time....obviously subjective:
2019 -
rd 2 - Rapp - jag/bust
rd 3 - Henderson - jag
rd 3 - D Long - bust/jag
rd 4 - Gaines - bust
2018
rd 3 - Noteboom - jag to bust
rd 4 - B Allen - bust
rd 4 - JFM - bust
2017
rd 4 Ebukam - jag
rd 4 Reynolds - jag
2016
rd 4 - higgbie - jag
rd 4 - p cooper - bust
2015 -
rd 2 - Havenstein - jag/decent
rd 3 - J Brown - bust
rd 3 - Mannion - bust
rd 4 - Donnal - bust
This is awesome. This is the first time I've seen any specifics from you.
So for 2017, since you didn't list Everett, Kupp, or Johnson, I'm assuming you have all 3 of them in the Hit column?
For 2018, you didn't list Kiser, Oko, or SJD - two of which are starting now on a top 3 D and the other is a big contributor. Are they hits, jags, or busts?
For 2019, you didn't list Evans or Edwards one of which is starting. Hits, jags, or busts? Also, what if D. Long is plugged in as a starting CB next year, does that change his grade?
If I could piece together a standard for you, your guiding principles, based on your list, it would be as follows:
1) 2nd and 3rd round picks should be stars or an above-average starter - simply starting or being a big contributor isn't enough. (See Higbee, Henderson, Rapp, and Noteboom)
2) 4th round picks should be starters - big contributors aren't enough. (See Reynolds)
3) Picks that take two-plus years to develop such as Higbee and Noteboom, are failed picks b/c of the length of time it took.
4) You judge a draft based on rounds 1-4. (picked this up since you didn't list any picks after the 4th round even though we have players drafted later who clearly have outplayed their draft position.)
How accurate is this standard?
Once we have a standard or guideline for expectations, then we can apply that to other teams and see how they're doing. You don't list the hit/miss percentages of other teams which is why I said it's half a case at best. I'm curious to see how other teams stack up against your guidelines.
