Re: Those are thoughtful questions

Not only do I agree that mcvay and company believe they can win with Goff but the last 2 years proved it. Even if he stays at his current level they can win. Heck even on a bad day they but up 30 on a good defense. However do you pay all that money to an average qb? Maybe but I'm not sure I would do it.

With that in mind i think the graph is missing some data which may lead to some misleading findings. Overall it assumes that everything other than qb rating is constant which of course is clearly not the case. Kupp got hurt. Defenses adjusted to the scheme. Gurley was hurt/injured or whatever you want to call it. Sullivan and Blythe appeared to decline over time. Etc etc etc. These things are not reflected in the line. I'm not saying Goff shouldn't shoulder some of the blame. He should. But these other things also contributed. I think when evaluating Goffs performance the coaches take these thinks under consideration.

Moreover I'm not sure the baseline should be 80. I mean what does an average 4th year qb look like game by game? Is 80 good? Should their be an incremental incline? Maybe young QBs typically hit a wall at some point in their development. To be clear I'm not suggesting you answer all these questions. I'm just pointing out it's not as simple as putting some numbers on a line and saying let's dump him because the slope is downward.

Finally I suggest that mcvay believes Goff will be better than average as he learns more and more. IMO that is why you make such a significant investment in him.