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Why would you say that?

September 12, 2019 06:15PM
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1. The slope of that line is pretty much determined by the last four points - against 3 playoff teams and a very good Panthers team on the road. It'd be very nice to see him dominate against the best, but not surprising that he doesn't.

2. He's inconsistent.

That slope is mostly determined by the high points and low points.

Fact is Goff’s passer rating was over 110 for 4 games before the bye against 4 good teams, Packers, Saints, Seahawks, and Chiefs. After the bye he had no games over 100 against a good team.

"Low" is a relative term as well as an absolute one. The cluster of low points at the end - RELATIVE to most of the points that precede them - drag the end of the line down. (Run the regression again without those points and see what the line looks like.) And a cluster of relative lows is exactly what you expect of QB ratings during the playoffs relative to the regular season. Yes, he had some good games against good teams (really, we should be looking at good DEFENSES to make the case, not simply good TEAMS). But, like most QBs, on average his rating is lower against good teams, and especially against good defenses, than against the average mix of regular-season opponents. And, by definition, he faced 3 very good teams at year's end - and then played a very team team on the road to begin this year.

IOW, the "trend" is an artifact of making the playoffs and playing good teams. That doesn't mean Goff can't or shouldn't perform consistently better against good teams or that his relative lows somehow "had" to be as low as they were. It doesn't even mean that Goff ISN'T playing worse over time even allowing for the better quality of team he played more recently. But the negative slope of the regression line is NOT the way to make that case.

One last point. Lines like this are pretty sensitive to single data points, especially at the ends. Had Goff earned a 120 rating in game 1 the slope would have looked different. In fact, a high rating in this Saints game will probably completely flatten out the line and, VOILA!, the "trend" vanishes completely. That alone should tell you to be cautious in your interpretation.

Then other playoff qbs would chart that way. Do they?

No, they do not. Not at such a disparity between the early part of the year and ending.

Apparently, posters here are trying to explain the chart as a meaningless fluke. I get it. They don’t want to see a bad picture.

Certainly, things can change. Goff has a lot of games to play this year and there is no reason to believe that he suddenly went from a 100 rating QB to a below 80 rating QB.

"No, they do not"?

Actually, yes they do. Every one. I already spoke to the magnitude thing. Point is that if all 12 playoff QB's "trend" down, some of them as badly as Goff, *maybe* the thing they have in common - playing a cluster of good teams in the playoffs - explains a lot of what you're worried about.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Goff's last 20 games...

max891September 11, 2019 07:35AM

  not understanding the graph

ferragamo79227September 11, 2019 07:45AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

AlbaNY_Ram179September 11, 2019 08:00AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

Rampage2K-170September 11, 2019 08:12AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

AlbaNY_Ram147September 11, 2019 08:42AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

Rampage2K-122September 11, 2019 09:41AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

max171September 11, 2019 08:13AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

Rampage2K-118September 11, 2019 08:29AM

  Hey, you can interpret the data anyway you want

max121September 11, 2019 09:11AM

  Re: Hey, you can interpret the data anyway you want

Rampage2K-103September 11, 2019 09:48AM

  One of my favorite sayings from science is

RamUK112September 11, 2019 01:30PM

  thanks Max

ferragamo79115September 11, 2019 08:38AM

  Thats a fair assessment

max105September 11, 2019 09:14AM

  So how do you account for all the winning. NM

PHDram108September 11, 2019 08:28AM

  Re: Sean McKay

spagsbacker144September 11, 2019 10:13PM

  perhaps my memory is not as sharp

PHDram92September 12, 2019 04:24AM

  Up to week eleven it was outstanding

Hazlet Hacksaw122September 11, 2019 08:33AM

  Re: Up to week eleven it was outstanding

zn90September 11, 2019 07:46PM

  Re: Up to week eleven it was outstanding

max88September 12, 2019 02:29AM

  Goff himself called it rust

zn80September 12, 2019 12:31PM

  Re: Goff himself called it rust

LMU9383September 12, 2019 01:11PM

  Re: Goff himself called it rust

zn77September 12, 2019 01:16PM

  yeah, 79.6

max84September 12, 2019 01:35PM

  Re: yeah, 79.6

LMU9371September 13, 2019 07:16AM

  Re: Goff himself called it rust

moklerman68September 13, 2019 07:21AM

  Re: Goff himself called it rust

max81September 13, 2019 07:26AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

bigjimram21114September 11, 2019 08:38AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

Rampage2K-113September 11, 2019 09:44AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

bigjimram2169September 12, 2019 06:52AM

  Re: yeah its not a good trend

Speed_Kills128September 11, 2019 08:40AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

moklerman107September 11, 2019 10:58AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

sacram81September 11, 2019 11:18AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

Rampage2K-86September 11, 2019 11:23AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

moklerman89September 11, 2019 03:43PM

  The point is this...

max96September 11, 2019 03:57PM

  Re: Yeah Goff was very good against the Saints

Speed_Kills85September 13, 2019 07:29AM

  If you consider the playoff game in New Orleans a....

sacram89September 11, 2019 06:22PM

  Re: If you consider the playoff game in New Orleans a....

moklerman86September 11, 2019 10:02PM

  gotta break with you that one moklerman

Speed_Kills73September 13, 2019 07:32AM

  Re: gotta break with you that one moklerman

moklerman74September 13, 2019 08:03AM

  wow, I missed this, ok, time out...

max73September 13, 2019 08:03AM

  Re: wow, I missed this, ok, time out...

moklerman70September 13, 2019 08:09AM

  Yep, that’s what I thought you meant

max63September 13, 2019 09:28AM

  Re: Yep, that’s what I thought you meant

moklerman61September 13, 2019 09:42AM

  Goff's Passer rating last 20 games...

sacram135September 11, 2019 11:21AM

  Re: Goff's Passer rating last 20 games...

max101September 11, 2019 12:22PM

  Re: Goff's Passer rating last 20 games...

sacram92September 11, 2019 12:46PM

  Re: Goff's Passer rating last 20 games...

Suh-weet!80September 11, 2019 02:48PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

jim beam91September 11, 2019 12:03PM

  Not at all surprising

Suh-weet!162September 11, 2019 12:19PM

  Wrong

max115September 11, 2019 12:24PM

  Max: how about this?

BC Ramsfan118September 11, 2019 12:38PM

  Re: Max: how about this?

max88September 11, 2019 01:53PM

  Justr look at the graph

BC Ramsfan96September 11, 2019 02:02PM

  Re: Justr look at the graph

max108September 11, 2019 02:12PM

  I would not be so sure of that NM.

PHDram77September 11, 2019 03:53PM

  Re: I would not be so sure of that NM.

max96September 11, 2019 04:00PM

  thanks for the modified graph

BC Ramsfan87September 11, 2019 05:19PM

  Brash and mistaken is till mistaken, Max

Suh-weet!134September 11, 2019 02:14PM

  I have no idea what you're talking about. nm

max80September 11, 2019 02:17PM

  You could have just said so the first time, but... carry on. (nm)

Suh-weet!92September 11, 2019 02:18PM

  I'll know to ignore next time. thanks. nm

max77September 11, 2019 02:23PM

  Re: Brash and mistaken is till mistaken, Max

zn102September 11, 2019 07:37PM

  Re: Brash and mistaken is till mistaken, Max

max83September 12, 2019 02:27AM

  Why would you say that?

Suh-weet!66September 12, 2019 06:15PM

  I'm not going to run those numbers, but...

Suh-weet!86September 12, 2019 04:17AM

  Re: I'm not going to run those numbers, but...

zn85September 12, 2019 05:29AM

  claim away...

PHDram84September 12, 2019 05:46AM

  Re: claim away...

max79September 12, 2019 06:03AM

  hunh?

zn77September 12, 2019 06:04AM

  They ALL do. All 12 of them.

Suh-weet!70September 12, 2019 06:12PM

  Good lord, this is like the worst game of Clue....ever!

promomasterj116September 11, 2019 12:55PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

Hollywood Ram85September 11, 2019 01:19PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...Too early for this stuff

BumRap99September 11, 2019 02:07PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...Too early for this stuff

Rampage2K-92September 11, 2019 02:36PM

  Re: Bringing It, Bum Rap

leafnose61September 13, 2019 12:41PM

  100 percent with you

promomasterj89September 11, 2019 02:52PM

  The GOATs last 20 games...

DaJudge142September 11, 2019 03:00PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

Rams43139September 11, 2019 03:04PM

  Totally fair, 43

max106September 11, 2019 04:13PM

  More Kupp and Gurley will bring him back

Rams_8188September 11, 2019 04:20PM

  Here are Dak's and Watson's charts...

max165September 12, 2019 04:26AM

  Re: Here are Dak's and Watson's charts...have they been to a Super Bowl?

Rampage2K-99September 12, 2019 06:13AM

  So Rex Grossman is better than Philip Rivers?

max91September 12, 2019 07:03AM

  Re: So Rex Grossman is better than Philip Rivers?

moklerman86September 12, 2019 07:25AM

  Re: its really silly to me how people react to this stuff

Speed_Kills90September 12, 2019 07:58AM

  Thank you

max74September 12, 2019 08:06AM

  We can have disagreements on this board without people being "under attack".

Saguaro98September 12, 2019 08:10AM

  Re: speak

Speed_Kills89September 12, 2019 08:16AM

  Well, it's not as if I've been silent, and nobody has any idea what I think.

Saguaro88September 12, 2019 08:41AM

  Re: I had no idea what you thought until just now

Speed_Kills74September 12, 2019 09:09AM

  One quick add. I'm less interested in the Goff narrative than beating the Saints, period.

Saguaro87September 12, 2019 09:19AM

  I'm extremely interesting in winning this game, its huge

max72September 12, 2019 09:37AM

  Re: agreed... its about the win

Speed_Kills79September 12, 2019 09:50AM

  Yup...

max77September 12, 2019 10:12AM

  Re: Well, it's not as if I've been silent, and nobody has any idea what I think.

Rampage2K-74September 12, 2019 09:15AM

  Re: We can have disagreements on this board without people being "under attack".

max77September 12, 2019 08:32AM

  Re: So Rex Grossman is better than Philip Rivers?

Rampage2K-108September 12, 2019 09:10AM

  Some context

CeeZar99September 12, 2019 06:05AM

  Thats not context, that's cherry picking

max85September 12, 2019 07:00AM

  90 is the new 80

moklerman84September 12, 2019 07:20AM

  Re: 90 is the new 80

max89September 12, 2019 07:40AM

  Well, I will say this.

Saguaro76September 12, 2019 08:04AM

  I would be wrong too.

max76September 12, 2019 08:09AM

  I'm just not ready to make one game or even series of games the final answer.

Saguaro78September 12, 2019 08:14AM

  Re: I would be wrong too.

moklerman71September 12, 2019 08:15AM

  Re: It seems that Ram

Speed_Kills67September 12, 2019 06:29PM

  Re: 90 is the new 80

moklerman64September 12, 2019 08:05AM

  Re: Thats not context, that's cherry picking

CeeZar80September 12, 2019 07:48AM

  Re: Thats not context, that's cherry picking

max96September 12, 2019 07:54AM

  Re: Thats not context, that's cherry picking

PHDram90September 12, 2019 08:42AM

  Those are thoughtful questions

max87September 12, 2019 09:18AM

  Re: Those are thoughtful questions

PHDram75September 12, 2019 06:32PM

  Re: Thats not context, that's cherry picking

GroundPounder82September 12, 2019 10:06AM

  people often misuse the term "cherry picking"

zn84September 12, 2019 12:58PM

  Thinking too much

RFL152September 12, 2019 10:26AM

  Re: Thinking too much

max89September 12, 2019 11:01AM

  Re: Thinking too much

Atlantic Ram86September 12, 2019 02:04PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

george_allen82September 12, 2019 02:54PM

  Goff before and after BYE chart

max114September 13, 2019 04:33AM

  Re: wow look at that

Speed_Kills111September 13, 2019 05:10AM

  wow...what a revelation

Rampage2K-87September 13, 2019 05:31AM

  Re: wow...what a revelation

max84September 13, 2019 05:39AM

  not really

PHDram76September 13, 2019 06:26AM

  Re: not really

max76September 13, 2019 06:38AM

  Re: not really

PHDram76September 13, 2019 06:55AM

  Ah, there's the confusion

max65September 13, 2019 11:18AM

  This is getting fun now. Attachments

Saguaro116September 13, 2019 06:30AM

  Re: This is getting fun now.

max89September 13, 2019 06:41AM

  the goat Attachments

PHDram118September 13, 2019 08:37AM

  Keep in mind...

moklerman98September 13, 2019 08:51AM

  Those games are not comparable

CeeZar92September 13, 2019 09:28AM

  Does that work both ways?

moklerman73September 13, 2019 09:47AM

  Re: Does that work both ways?

Rampage2K-76September 13, 2019 10:14AM

  Re: Does that work both ways?

moklerman67September 13, 2019 10:24AM

  Re: Does that work both ways?

Rampage2K-74September 13, 2019 10:34AM

  Re: Does that work both ways?

moklerman65September 13, 2019 10:58AM

  Re: the bottom line is

Speed_Kills78September 13, 2019 11:24AM

  Yeah, well...maybe you're right. Attachments

Saguaro81September 13, 2019 01:06PM

  Re: On Sunday hes going to do his thing

Speed_Kills71September 13, 2019 04:28PM

  Re: the bottom line is

Rampage2K-77September 13, 2019 02:12PM

  Re: the bottom line is

Speed_Kills64September 13, 2019 04:26PM

  Re: the bottom line is

Rampage2K-70September 13, 2019 05:01PM

  No one's demanding 350/3

moklerman76September 13, 2019 05:18PM

  Re: I don't think the Chiefs sold out to stop the run

Speed_Kills73September 13, 2019 11:20AM

  Re: the goat

max82September 13, 2019 11:05AM

  Re: the goat

PHDram79September 13, 2019 11:46AM

  Re: the goat

max79September 13, 2019 03:09PM

  Were all agreed on that last statement. NM

PHDram61September 13, 2019 03:54PM

  Re: the goat

zn77September 13, 2019 04:48PM

  Re: the goat

max72September 13, 2019 06:08PM

  Re: the goat

zn77September 13, 2019 06:27PM