Welcome! Log In Create A New Profile

Advanced

Re: Brash and mistaken is till mistaken, Max

September 11, 2019 07:37PM
Quote
Suh-weet!
Quote
max
Quote
Suh-weet!
1. The slope of that line is pretty much determined by the last four points - against 3 playoff teams and a very good Panthers team on the road. It'd be very nice to see him dominate against the best, but not surprising that he doesn't.

2. He's inconsistent.

That slope is mostly determined by the high points and low points.

Fact is Goff’s passer rating was over 110 for 4 games before the bye against 4 good teams, Packers, Saints, Seahawks, and Chiefs. After the bye he had no games over 100 against a good team.

"Low" is a relative term as well as an absolute one. The cluster of low points at the end - RELATIVE to most of the points that precede them - drag the end of the line down. (Run the regression again without those points and see what the line looks like.) And a cluster of relative lows is exactly what you expect of QB ratings during the playoffs relative to the regular season. Yes, he had some good games against good teams (really, we should be looking at good DEFENSES to make the case, not simply good TEAMS). But, like most QBs, on average his rating is lower against good teams, and especially against good defenses, than against the average mix of regular-season opponents. And, by definition, he faced 3 very good teams at year's end - and then played a very team team on the road to begin this year.

IOW, the "trend" is an artifact of making the playoffs and playing good teams. That doesn't mean Goff can't or shouldn't perform consistently better against good teams or that his relative lows somehow "had" to be as low as they were. It doesn't even mean that Goff ISN'T playing worse over time even allowing for the better quality of team he played more recently. But the negative slope of the regression line is NOT the way to make that case.

One last point. Lines like this are pretty sensitive to single data points, especially at the ends. Had Goff earned a 120 rating in game 1 the slope would have looked different. In fact, a high rating in this Saints game will probably completely flatten out the line and, VOILA!, the "trend" vanishes completely. That alone should tell you to be cautious in your interpretation.

Then other playoff qbs would chart that way. Do they?
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Goff's last 20 games...

max883September 11, 2019 07:35AM

  not understanding the graph

ferragamo79222September 11, 2019 07:45AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

AlbaNY_Ram172September 11, 2019 08:00AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

Rampage2K-165September 11, 2019 08:12AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

AlbaNY_Ram142September 11, 2019 08:42AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

Rampage2K-115September 11, 2019 09:41AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

max164September 11, 2019 08:13AM

  Re: not understanding the graph

Rampage2K-113September 11, 2019 08:29AM

  Hey, you can interpret the data anyway you want

max115September 11, 2019 09:11AM

  Re: Hey, you can interpret the data anyway you want

Rampage2K-98September 11, 2019 09:48AM

  One of my favorite sayings from science is

RamUK101September 11, 2019 01:30PM

  thanks Max

ferragamo79109September 11, 2019 08:38AM

  Thats a fair assessment

max100September 11, 2019 09:14AM

  So how do you account for all the winning. NM

PHDram99September 11, 2019 08:28AM

  Re: Sean McKay

spagsbacker105September 11, 2019 10:13PM

  perhaps my memory is not as sharp

PHDram84September 12, 2019 04:24AM

  Up to week eleven it was outstanding

Hazlet Hacksaw115September 11, 2019 08:33AM

  Re: Up to week eleven it was outstanding

zn84September 11, 2019 07:46PM

  Re: Up to week eleven it was outstanding

max79September 12, 2019 02:29AM

  Goff himself called it rust

zn75September 12, 2019 12:31PM

  Re: Goff himself called it rust

LMU9376September 12, 2019 01:11PM

  Re: Goff himself called it rust

zn69September 12, 2019 01:16PM

  yeah, 79.6

max78September 12, 2019 01:35PM

  Re: yeah, 79.6

LMU9366September 13, 2019 07:16AM

  Re: Goff himself called it rust

moklerman62September 13, 2019 07:21AM

  Re: Goff himself called it rust

max76September 13, 2019 07:26AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

bigjimram21108September 11, 2019 08:38AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

Rampage2K-106September 11, 2019 09:44AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

bigjimram2165September 12, 2019 06:52AM

  Re: yeah its not a good trend

Speed_Kills123September 11, 2019 08:40AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

moklerman100September 11, 2019 10:58AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

sacram76September 11, 2019 11:18AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

Rampage2K-80September 11, 2019 11:23AM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

moklerman84September 11, 2019 03:43PM

  The point is this...

max89September 11, 2019 03:57PM

  Re: Yeah Goff was very good against the Saints

Speed_Kills80September 13, 2019 07:29AM

  If you consider the playoff game in New Orleans a....

sacram81September 11, 2019 06:22PM

  Re: If you consider the playoff game in New Orleans a....

moklerman80September 11, 2019 10:02PM

  gotta break with you that one moklerman

Speed_Kills66September 13, 2019 07:32AM

  Re: gotta break with you that one moklerman

moklerman68September 13, 2019 08:03AM

  wow, I missed this, ok, time out...

max68September 13, 2019 08:03AM

  Re: wow, I missed this, ok, time out...

moklerman63September 13, 2019 08:09AM

  Yep, that’s what I thought you meant

max56September 13, 2019 09:28AM

  Re: Yep, that’s what I thought you meant

moklerman56September 13, 2019 09:42AM

  Goff's Passer rating last 20 games...

sacram129September 11, 2019 11:21AM

  Re: Goff's Passer rating last 20 games...

max96September 11, 2019 12:22PM

  Re: Goff's Passer rating last 20 games...

sacram85September 11, 2019 12:46PM

  Re: Goff's Passer rating last 20 games...

Suh-weet!75September 11, 2019 02:48PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

jim beam85September 11, 2019 12:03PM

  Not at all surprising

Suh-weet!155September 11, 2019 12:19PM

  Wrong

max109September 11, 2019 12:24PM

  Max: how about this?

BC Ramsfan111September 11, 2019 12:38PM

  Re: Max: how about this?

max83September 11, 2019 01:53PM

  Justr look at the graph

BC Ramsfan90September 11, 2019 02:02PM

  Re: Justr look at the graph

max99September 11, 2019 02:12PM

  I would not be so sure of that NM.

PHDram71September 11, 2019 03:53PM

  Re: I would not be so sure of that NM.

max89September 11, 2019 04:00PM

  thanks for the modified graph

BC Ramsfan78September 11, 2019 05:19PM

  Brash and mistaken is till mistaken, Max

Suh-weet!116September 11, 2019 02:14PM

  I have no idea what you're talking about. nm

max73September 11, 2019 02:17PM

  You could have just said so the first time, but... carry on. (nm)

Suh-weet!87September 11, 2019 02:18PM

  I'll know to ignore next time. thanks. nm

max70September 11, 2019 02:23PM

  Re: Brash and mistaken is till mistaken, Max

zn95September 11, 2019 07:37PM

  Re: Brash and mistaken is till mistaken, Max

max76September 12, 2019 02:27AM

  Why would you say that?

Suh-weet!61September 12, 2019 06:15PM

  I'm not going to run those numbers, but...

Suh-weet!78September 12, 2019 04:17AM

  Re: I'm not going to run those numbers, but...

zn78September 12, 2019 05:29AM

  claim away...

PHDram78September 12, 2019 05:46AM

  Re: claim away...

max73September 12, 2019 06:03AM

  hunh?

zn71September 12, 2019 06:04AM

  They ALL do. All 12 of them.

Suh-weet!61September 12, 2019 06:12PM

  Good lord, this is like the worst game of Clue....ever!

promomasterj110September 11, 2019 12:55PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

Hollywood Ram79September 11, 2019 01:19PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...Too early for this stuff

BumRap89September 11, 2019 02:07PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...Too early for this stuff

Rampage2K-87September 11, 2019 02:36PM

  Re: Bringing It, Bum Rap

leafnose55September 13, 2019 12:41PM

  100 percent with you

promomasterj84September 11, 2019 02:52PM

  The GOATs last 20 games...

DaJudge134September 11, 2019 03:00PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

Rams43135September 11, 2019 03:04PM

  Totally fair, 43

max100September 11, 2019 04:13PM

  More Kupp and Gurley will bring him back

Rams_8181September 11, 2019 04:20PM

  Here are Dak's and Watson's charts...

max155September 12, 2019 04:26AM

  Re: Here are Dak's and Watson's charts...have they been to a Super Bowl?

Rampage2K-92September 12, 2019 06:13AM

  So Rex Grossman is better than Philip Rivers?

max85September 12, 2019 07:03AM

  Re: So Rex Grossman is better than Philip Rivers?

moklerman80September 12, 2019 07:25AM

  Re: its really silly to me how people react to this stuff

Speed_Kills84September 12, 2019 07:58AM

  Thank you

max68September 12, 2019 08:06AM

  We can have disagreements on this board without people being "under attack".

Saguaro91September 12, 2019 08:10AM

  Re: speak

Speed_Kills83September 12, 2019 08:16AM

  Well, it's not as if I've been silent, and nobody has any idea what I think.

Saguaro80September 12, 2019 08:41AM

  Re: I had no idea what you thought until just now

Speed_Kills69September 12, 2019 09:09AM

  One quick add. I'm less interested in the Goff narrative than beating the Saints, period.

Saguaro79September 12, 2019 09:19AM

  I'm extremely interesting in winning this game, its huge

max65September 12, 2019 09:37AM

  Re: agreed... its about the win

Speed_Kills72September 12, 2019 09:50AM

  Yup...

max70September 12, 2019 10:12AM

  Re: Well, it's not as if I've been silent, and nobody has any idea what I think.

Rampage2K-69September 12, 2019 09:15AM

  Re: We can have disagreements on this board without people being "under attack".

max70September 12, 2019 08:32AM

  Re: So Rex Grossman is better than Philip Rivers?

Rampage2K-102September 12, 2019 09:10AM

  Some context

CeeZar92September 12, 2019 06:05AM

  Thats not context, that's cherry picking

max77September 12, 2019 07:00AM

  90 is the new 80

moklerman79September 12, 2019 07:20AM

  Re: 90 is the new 80

max80September 12, 2019 07:40AM

  Well, I will say this.

Saguaro69September 12, 2019 08:04AM

  I would be wrong too.

max70September 12, 2019 08:09AM

  I'm just not ready to make one game or even series of games the final answer.

Saguaro70September 12, 2019 08:14AM

  Re: I would be wrong too.

moklerman65September 12, 2019 08:15AM

  Re: It seems that Ram

Speed_Kills59September 12, 2019 06:29PM

  Re: 90 is the new 80

moklerman57September 12, 2019 08:05AM

  Re: Thats not context, that's cherry picking

CeeZar73September 12, 2019 07:48AM

  Re: Thats not context, that's cherry picking

max90September 12, 2019 07:54AM

  Re: Thats not context, that's cherry picking

PHDram81September 12, 2019 08:42AM

  Those are thoughtful questions

max76September 12, 2019 09:18AM

  Re: Those are thoughtful questions

PHDram69September 12, 2019 06:32PM

  Re: Thats not context, that's cherry picking

GroundPounder74September 12, 2019 10:06AM

  people often misuse the term "cherry picking"

zn77September 12, 2019 12:58PM

  Thinking too much

RFL146September 12, 2019 10:26AM

  Re: Thinking too much

max84September 12, 2019 11:01AM

  Re: Thinking too much

Atlantic Ram77September 12, 2019 02:04PM

  Re: Goff's last 20 games...

george_allen76September 12, 2019 02:54PM

  Goff before and after BYE chart

max107September 13, 2019 04:33AM

  Re: wow look at that

Speed_Kills95September 13, 2019 05:10AM

  wow...what a revelation

Rampage2K-81September 13, 2019 05:31AM

  Re: wow...what a revelation

max77September 13, 2019 05:39AM

  not really

PHDram71September 13, 2019 06:26AM

  Re: not really

max69September 13, 2019 06:38AM

  Re: not really

PHDram70September 13, 2019 06:55AM

  Ah, there's the confusion

max58September 13, 2019 11:18AM

  This is getting fun now. Attachments

Saguaro108September 13, 2019 06:30AM

  Re: This is getting fun now.

max83September 13, 2019 06:41AM

  the goat Attachments

PHDram112September 13, 2019 08:37AM

  Keep in mind...

moklerman71September 13, 2019 08:51AM

  Those games are not comparable

CeeZar86September 13, 2019 09:28AM

  Does that work both ways?

moklerman66September 13, 2019 09:47AM

  Re: Does that work both ways?

Rampage2K-71September 13, 2019 10:14AM

  Re: Does that work both ways?

moklerman61September 13, 2019 10:24AM

  Re: Does that work both ways?

Rampage2K-69September 13, 2019 10:34AM

  Re: Does that work both ways?

moklerman59September 13, 2019 10:58AM

  Re: the bottom line is

Speed_Kills72September 13, 2019 11:24AM

  Yeah, well...maybe you're right. Attachments

Saguaro70September 13, 2019 01:06PM

  Re: On Sunday hes going to do his thing

Speed_Kills65September 13, 2019 04:28PM

  Re: the bottom line is

Rampage2K-72September 13, 2019 02:12PM

  Re: the bottom line is

Speed_Kills59September 13, 2019 04:26PM

  Re: the bottom line is

Rampage2K-64September 13, 2019 05:01PM

  No one's demanding 350/3

moklerman66September 13, 2019 05:18PM

  Re: I don't think the Chiefs sold out to stop the run

Speed_Kills66September 13, 2019 11:20AM

  Re: the goat

max77September 13, 2019 11:05AM

  Re: the goat

PHDram74September 13, 2019 11:46AM

  Re: the goat

max74September 13, 2019 03:09PM

  Were all agreed on that last statement. NM

PHDram57September 13, 2019 03:54PM

  Re: the goat

zn70September 13, 2019 04:48PM

  Re: the goat

max66September 13, 2019 06:08PM

  Re: the goat

zn68September 13, 2019 06:27PM