Rams have been a fairly balanced run/pass team under McVay. Still are this year. Some numbers (rounded):
2017 - 56% pass / 44% run
2018 - 58% pass / 42% run - This is currently good for 19th, so actually the Rams run more then 1/2 the teams in the league. Minnesota throws 68% of the time and is last (or 1st) and Seattle passes 49% (lowest % ).
KC passes 61% and NO passes 53%. So the Rams fall right in between those 2.
But the last 3 games is disturbing - 69% passing which includes last night witch was 79%. Last 3 games passing % is the 4th highest in the league. And the worst this weekend (unless Minn. passes more tonight).
I have no idea why McVay is getting away from the run, maybe he wants to keep Gurley fresh with Brown out, who knows. But he needs to pull his head out and balance this thing out. its not like the Rams had to throw because they were so far behind...
Numbers part 2:
Redzone TD percentage:
This is where McVays spacing offense needs to adjust, and where I have harped on him forever:
2016 Washington - 46% TD rate - last in the NFL
2017 LA - 53% TD rate - 17th in the NFL
2018 - 58% TD rate - 19th in the NFL
So as he has gotten better, so has the league this year. BTW the Saints are 5th at 69% and KC is 3rd at 72%.
Rams are .25% better then the Bills. Wrap your head around that. With a rookie Qb part of the time and a backup QB the rest, with a below average RB group and a WR corps that any average NFL fan would struggle to name one. I have some thoughts on this.
Last set of numbers:
75% - 2017 - plays ran out of 11 personnel last year. 1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WR
95% - 2018 - plays ran out of 11 personnel last year. 1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WR
This is just goofy. Even McVay said after last season that this has to change:
“You look at it where, especially for us offensively, we were regulated at the end of the year in just almost exclusively 11 personnel,” McVay said this week. “You don’t want to just operate out of one personnel group in an ideal world, so we’ve got to continue to develop some depth at the tight end position.”So why are they going backwards on personnel groupings? Je will say TE development, I'm not sure but i might agree with him.
What do all these numbers mean? Not much as the Rams are still 3rd in the league in scoring and are tied for the best record in the NFL. But that doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement.
McVay is know as a offensive innovator and a guy that has taken advantage of the new NFL rules regarding defenses. So why isn't he getting out of these tight bunched 3 wide sets and using more 2 TEs? Why isn't he using more in routes? Or some ISO plays?
In the redzone. The deep spacing attack doesn't work on a shortened field and these 3 WR bunch sets (designed to create enough confusion to get a WR open on short to intermediate routes) aren't working in the condensed redzone. Another thing he needs to use more of are these "natural pick" plays to get WRs open in the redzone.
Another thing, he needs to get TEs involved in the seam more then he has. Rarely do you see a TE down the middle, its always on the edge or on an out route. TEs are also great for run blocking, and using on pick plays. So either McVay is outsmarting himself, or he just doesn't like what he has in his TEs.
Lastly, running the ball. i would love to see some 2 TE sets and just punish the defense every once in a while. its no coincidence that as passing % goes up, the Rams scoring is going down. Esp. with Kupp out, Run some Higbee, Everett, Cooks and Woods sets and force these DCs to game plan for more then 11 bunch week in and week out. If McVay is as smart as everyone thinks he is, then he should be able to adapt some simple 12 personnel concepts. And if Cooks is as good at creating seperation in his route running as his numbers indicate he is, he should be able to get open without being in a 3 wide bunch set as well. Heck even 11 personnel that isn't always bunched.
That was long, really boring and i'm sure a bad read, but I thought I would share what I think about as i watch the games and what i think is happening. There are also some teams that just matchup well against other teams (see Fisher's Rams against the Seahawks) and maybe the Bears are that team, so it was good to see them so McVay can adapt.
As far as defense, the next time I see that really wide split between DTs with nobody over either OG or OC I am going to puke. They shift inward and drop someone inside but all the center has to do is get to one side or the other of the guy that drops to the middle and its over with. I saw Suh drop on a long run last night and all the center did was get on Suh's left side and the run went up the middle, a right step to avoid a shielded Suh and off to the 3rd level. I just have no idea what this accomplishes?
Lastly, the Rams are playing with 2 limited ILBers and a 2 FSs. Joyner is a goner, JJ3 is the new FS and Barron better be gone. Look at 2 of the better defenses in the NFL right now: Dallas and Chi. Both playing with 2 fast, instinctual, physical ILBer (Smith and Vander Esch in Dallas and Trevaithon and R. Smith in Chi) I think Littleton can be serviceable, but ILB needs an upgrade.
The fix to me is this:
Find a SS and ILB . I don't care if its FA or draft. Let Barron and Suh go. Get a true NT for a 34. Bum Jr has used them before, so why not now. Retain Fowler if he is affordable.
Don't waste your time looking back, you're not going that way. - Ragnar Lothbrok
