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RamUK
Gruden is adopting the old school mentality of accumulating Draft picks, whereas McVay prefers to take proven players.
Gruden's approach is the sexier for the fans because every Draft is like Christmas, but I think taking proven quality is wiser.
We all love the Draft, but could we really have acquired the talent we have purely that way?
I doubt it.
I think the "trading for proven players" thing was just 2018.
They need to draft players.
In 2020 Goff comes up for an extension that one will be massive. That means they will have a very, very short list of top contract players they can keep. At best it's 8-9.
The thing about lower 1st round picks is that they are bargains. They come in at the 2-3 M range and so you get top talent for very little.
They will need a lot of guys like that to keep a viable roster around the 8-9 top contract guys they can keep.
In contrast, when you trade for a young player, you are much closer to the time when you have to extend them and add them to that short list of 8-9 top contracts. That means you start losing more top players because you can't keep em all.
In contrast you keep 1st round picks at bargain prices
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Your overall reasoning here is sound. If we're talking about frequently trading 1st round picks like Cooks, that's not sustainable.
However, one of the things that has to be factored in is the comp pick that comes when a free agent walks. If in theory they were doing more of the Watkins, Peters, or Talib type trades that involve somewhere between a 2nd to a 5th round pick, then they may be able to continue that business model for the indefinite future.
If you give up a 2nd - 5th and you use the guy for 1-2 years, one of two things happens:
1) He either proves to be worthy of being part of the 8-9 talent core in which case he bumps an inferior one of the prior 8-9 and your talent base has been upgraded, or
2) They let him walk but benefited from his services in the short term. If he was also a really good player they get up to 3rd round comp pick back in which case your overall cost for the short term rental wasn't very much. Minus a 2nd, plus a 3rd may always be worth it especially if it helps you compete deep into the playoffs.
So I would tweak your statement to say that I don't envision them trading 1st round picks for proven players on a routine basis but trades involving lower rounds of compensation could easily happen fairly frequently.
