Quote
Rams_81
Every team in the league, the fans think the picks are bad. Expectations are about the typical results.
If somebody did analysis and posted the number of draft picks by round, by position, that were like pro bowlers, starters, made the team, didn't make the team, I believe fans would be surprised on the percentage in the upper categories is much lower than they think.
I;ve done a minor version of that. I looked at just the basic hit rates for certain teams considered to be good drafting teams. I found that a good hit rate is anywhere from 40% to the higher 40s. Anything past that is rare and exceptional.
30% to high 30s is average to okay.
But calculating hit rates is not the same as grading. Once you have the basic hit rate, you can then look at the quality of the players. How many pro bowlers etc? So grading is more qualitative.
But you have to do the basic quantitative first. Good drafting teams hit on around 40-48% of their picks.
People who just fetishize misses and don't know the hit percentages are generally missing the point. It's black hole trauma style analysis, where some bad thing or another sucks in everything else and there's no balance or perspective.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/23/2018 08:23AM by zn.