But the problem lies deeper than that.
When you draft a 1rst Rounder, your entire organization "expects" Pro-Bowls and All-Pro. Thus, they get a 'Better chance" to "stick" in the league because of POTENTIAL.
Casserly's biggest point IMHO.......Defined success as "A player who developed in to a starter within 4 years of being drafted". Considering the average NFL career is 3.3 years, if you get over 2 BIG HURDLES, (last over 3.3 years and are a starter) then you have been a good, successful draft pick.
