I once did some numbers
| April 24, 2017 04:07PM |
Quote
RamBill
If you take Charley Casserly's numbers on the percentage of players drafted by round who become successful in the NFL....with Successful defined as a player developing into a starter within four years of being drafted.” ....roughly 70% of players drafted are NOT successful. That number could vary by year and you could quibble with his definition, but an overwhelming majority of drafted players are unsuccessful EVERY year.
Bill Polian has said that the very best GM's get it right a little more than 50% of the time.
So every "draft expert" is wrong A LOT of the time. People should be a lot more forgiving about others being "wrong" about a draft evaluation. I've often thought that the top characteristic of an NFL draft evaluator should be humility.
Actually if a draft expert wanted to be most accurate by percentage they should predict every single player as being a bust. In reality they would be correct the majority of the time every single year.
I picked a few well-regarded drafting teams. I covered a 6 or 7 year period that stopped 3 years before. So for example if I did that now, I would go back to 2007 but the last year would be 2013 so I could have some idea how the players panned out.
What I found was that good drafting teams got hits just around 42-46% of the time. I regarded 50% or more as exceptional. Average was around the mid-30s to 40.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/24/2017 04:08PM by zn.
