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Blue and Gold
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RamBill
Casserly found that First-round draft picks have a 75% chance of success. Second-rounders, 50%. Third-rounders, 30%. Fourth-rounders, 25%. Fifth-rounders, 20%. Sixth-rounders, 9% and Seventh-rounders, 5%.
I wonder, though, if he counts designated rushers, nickel and dime backs as "starters" and therefore successful...
He did this a few years ago, so I doubt it.
The hardest part about this is coming up with a definition of success. What if a guy is a core special teams player on a team after 4 years. He's not a starter but a valuable contributor to a team. He would be counted as a bust in Casserly's definition. No matter how you define it, the majority drafted every year doesn't make it. That gets forgotten this time of year.