[en.wikipedia.org]

Similar fact evidence


This is the key.in that write-up.

Number of occurrences of the similar acts

Of course, you are right about this player. Many teams have 4th rounders that are just guys. I think draft picks are overvalued for that very reason.

But in this case, you have a pattern that has been established and is consistent. Great talents taking longer or not making it at all.

It is only a problem on the offensive side of the ball too. Not a problem on defense.