This article makes the closet assumption that drafting a QB high in the first round produces an elite NFL QB.
Rather, it is one of the riskiest, most uncertain investments of draft capital one can make (assuming high 1st round picks have extra value).
Entire rosters get built based on the assumption that one has selected an elite QB and so his expected talents are built-around to support his strengths and make up for his weaknesses. For at least 3 years after he's drafted, when the team is still trying to achieve expectations, then the cry is that the HC is failing the young QB and they need to put him in a system that's more to his talents. Then, when none of this works, the HC and his staff are fired and the team has to be rebuilt again for the next projected, high first round elite QB for the new HC to pick. And so on.
Sure, every great now and then some team hits on an elite QB like Mahomes. More often, that player does little to elevate the team and only rarely takes them to a Superbowl. Mitch Trubiski was selected as the 2nd player, and 1st QB. Mahomes was bypassed until pick 10, when you're supposed to be outside of the elite range. Aaron Rogers was the 24th pick. If memory serves, Favre was a 2nd rounder (anyone remember a grocery clerk named Warner?).
You do NOT need an elite QB to win the Superbowl. But you do need a very good one.
That Stafford isn't Mahomes certainly didn't keep the Rams from winning the Superbowl. He wasn't any more of a mobile QB then, than he is today. But he did have a heck of an oline.
The QB of the best team in the NFC West right now was the final pick of the draft. The 2nd place team has a vet journeyman running the offense that few people could even name. The last place team has an amazing athlete QB that was taken with the first pick in the draft. The team hates the guy, and he can't stay healthy because he gets the crap beat out of him when he runs around. But he's so short, he has a hard team seeing his WRs over the giant NFL linemen.
The Bills have a supposed "elite" athlete QB, and they are .500.
The Bengals had the one great year with athlete QB Burrow, but haven't been that good since.
DeShaun Watson. Does anyone really want to even talk about that guy?
It takes a lot more than a QB to make a team competitive, and one of the best ways to have a really good offense is to have terrific skill players and a very good Oline.
I don't want to see the Rams waste a high 1st rounder on a 20% or less chance of hitting on a decent starting QB, let alone the 5 - 10% chance of hitting on an elite one. If they think they have a sleeper in the 2nd round or later, fine.
QB evaluations are like...you know what. Everybody has one.
