I know I must be in error here... BUT....
The USA made a bad mistake bottling up such a significant portion of their fleet at Pearl Harbor. Made them sitting ducks... and one could make the case that as such Japan couldn't really pass up the opportunity.
Then the irony.. at least to me... the attack strategy of Japan at Midway nearly did the same thing... this time Japan making the mistake. I realize it took some 'luck' to find them... never the less... it seems to me to have been a huge risk on the part of Japan.