Upon further review I agree with your take on the situation.
This quote from the article RFS69 posted about Houston seems pretty clear: "If Houston does sign with another team, the use of the tender means that he will still count in the formula to determine compensatory draft picks"
I also found this statement in this article about Houston [
nfltraderumors.co] :
If he does sign with another team, he counts as a compensatory free agent.So I'm now firmly in your camp: the Rams are probably going to avoid Ingram so they don't impact their 2023 comp pick class.
AlbaNY_Ram