Keep in mind that when the rams made the trade to get Von Miller, neither team knew what pick in the round the rams would be giving up. It could easily be assumed that the rams were likely to make the playoffs as the rams were 7-1 at the time so it was likely in the 20s to 30s. As it turned out, the pick ended up as the 32nd pick (worst possible return for Denver). When the Mack trade was conducted the value of the 2nd round pick was known - the 16th pick in the round (#48 overall), whereas the 2023 6th round pick could be anywhere in the round. Again with the quality of the team the chargers have amassed one should assume it is a later pick in the round.
The assessments of the trades were that the rams overpaid because they wanted Denver to take on some of Von Miller's cap hit for 2021 and that Denver had to pay less because they took on the full cap hit for 2022 and later years. Note a big difference in what each team received is the length of the contract with the club. The Rams rented Von Miller for a half season and now must resign him. The high end of what he is expected to get paid is about 17 million a year - the low end around 14. If they resign him for two years at the high end that is still cheaper than the approximately 23 million a year left on Mack's deal for the two years. If Von Miller signs with another team, it is very likely the rams will receive a 2023 3rd round pick. So either the rams get their star player for less money per year or they get a late third back next year. Another difference is that is that Von Miller is almost 2 years older than Mack so he may start to drop off in performance earlier than Mack so that leans in the Chargers favor. On the cap hit issue the chargers will be paying more than the rams will (if Von Miller resigns), but the chargers have the cap space as their QB is on the rookie contract for all the remaining years of Mack's deal so they can afford a big cap hit easier than the rams can.
I looked to both the Jimmy Johnson and the updated Rich Hill trade value charts to assess the trade values each team gave up. The typical perspective on future picks is to count them as pick a round later in the current draft.
With the original Johnson trade value chart, the Rams gave up picks 64 (270 points) and 96 (116 points) for a total of 386 points. The chargers gave up pick 48 (420 points) plus an equivalent of a 7th (1 point) for 421 points. So the rams gave up 35 points less which is equal to the rams 4th round comp pick. If the rams get a comp pick back in the 2023 3rd (I put it at 100) then that works out to be a 4th round comp pick in 2022 (pick 140) and gain back 36 points for a total of 71 points. That would be equivalent to pick 112 (8th pick in the 4th).
With the Rich Hill trade value chart, the Rams gave up picks 64 (80 points) and 96 (39 points) for a total of 139 points. The chargers gave up pick 48 (120 points) plus an equivalent of a 7th (2 points) for 122 points. Please note that 7th round picks range from 3 to 1 points. I assume the chargers do not finish in the bottom 8 teams so that removes the 3 and only the SB teams' picks are worth 1 point so that is why I went with 2. So the rams gave up 3 points less which is equal to the 6th round comp pick to at top of the 7th pick. If the rams get a comp pick back in the 2023 3rd (I put it at 100) then that works out to be a 4th round comp pick in 2022 (pick 140) and gain back 16 points for a total of 19 points. That would be equivalent to pick 132 or 133 in the 4th (the championship losers' picks).
So either the rams get Von Miller back for two years at a lower cap hit than Mack and gave up less value (equal to a comp 4th or a comp6th/ top of the 7th) or they just rented Von Miller and gave up less value (a top of the 4th or a bottom of the 4th).
Now keep in mind that either way the rams traded away more value than the rest of their picks combined. In the original trade value chart we traded 386 points and including the comp picks coming our way our remaining pick value is 158.6 so not even half of what we sent away in the trade. We see the same picture in the newer chart, we traded 139 points and including the comp picks coming our way our remaining pick value is 70 so we have remaining basically half of what we sent away in the trade.
However one wants to evaluate the trades, unless the chargers win a SB in the next three years (the length of the Mack's contract), then the Rams obviously won the battle of the trades. The rams move led all of us to be buying SB champs shirts, hats etc. So by default the rams win.
