PFF is really clueless

Quote
LMU93
I like Higbee and it's not about his ability. But more and more that 5-game stretch in 2019 looks like the anomaly vs. big things to come. I just think not every receiver is going to see a rise in numbers and that Woods, Kupp, Jefferson and (as long as he stays healthy) Jackson are far more likely to benefit from Stafford.

This from PFF's Rams fantasy football preview article today:
BUSTS
TE Tyler Higbee

Many are betting that Tyler Higbee will be a fantasy TE1 now that Gerald Everett is out of the way. Sell the hype. The market is overvaluing his 2019 five-game sample instead of looking at what Higbee has been for the rest of his career, functioning basically as a blocking tight end. His 21% pass-blocking snap rate was second among all tight ends. Only Chris Herndon blocked more in 2020.

To make matters worse, Higbee’s decreased threat rate is also extremely alarming. It fell by 40% from 2019, the most among all players. Great players are targeted at a high rate, so Higbee’s dramatic fall is very bad for his outlook.

Also, don’t overlook second-year tight end Brycen Hopkins. He barely played as a rookie, but he profiles as a prototypical pass-catching TE who can deliver splash plays on deep routes. He has the speed to be a mismatch in the passing game, and that could elevate him to a receiving tight end role.

First I do agree that Higs is not a top fantasy guy nor will he be even with Stafford. I just think we'll see an uptick with him. Probably a decent jump in TDs and redzone situations, with a small to reasonable boost in yards. Doubt he'll make 1k yards, simply because he's not a dynamic or priority target. That said if Stafford decides he likes him then 1k is possible.

But it is also possible that Harris becomes a key target in this offense. He is good enough for that and he has had a strong enough camp for that. Now we've seen strong camps before that don't translate, even under McVay. Jefferson last year for example, though we're going by comments and didn't have any fans there watching. Either way though he's not a slam dunk to be a first year impact guy at TE. Bottom line on Harris: I really do think that if you're going to draft a Rams' TE in fantasy by God it better be Harris or you just have not been paying attention. Even though he's a rook. He'd be on my bargain list and I'd stash him with the hopes he starts to produce this year.

PFF mentioning Hopkins is really funny to me. It demonstrates how much they shoot from the hip on their analysis, because Hopkins did not show well at all last year not even on teams. He showed nothing. The Rams did not activate him even when Higs was hurt. Then in camp he showed nothing. That recommendation demonstrates a big hole in PFF's analysis. IMO. But hey, if anyone trusts them feel free to go draft themselves some Hopkins.