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merlin
They say the hit rate in round one is around 54% or whatever. But how many of those "hits" are just dudes that start for a few years and/or never ascend to being a top player in the league. By far most of them.
So since it would be too much work I'll just guess that the Pro Bowl player hit rate in round 1 is very low. Like maybe 10% who knows. Or perhaps lower. So if you get 3 first round picks for a great player what's your chance of getting that elite player?
I'm sure it is higher in the top picks but I fully agree with that sentiment. If you can get a great player for picks and can afford to pay him do it. Chances are definitely in your favor as per my less-than-napkin math.
10% might be close to accurate for a Pro Bowl player. It would be nice to see a study on that. And then it's probably a lot lower for all pro players or the super elite guys like AD and Ramsey.
The real reason why teams who get the elite player win the deal more often is because truthfully the elite player is probably 4-5 #1 picks if they're coming at the end of the 1st round. But since no one pays more than 2 #1s the buying team is getting a steal.
