They say the hit rate in round one is around 54% or whatever. But how many of those "hits" are just dudes that start for a few years and/or never ascend to being a top player in the league. By far most of them.
So since it would be too much work I'll just guess that the Pro Bowl player hit rate in round 1 is very low. Like maybe 10% who knows. Or perhaps lower. So if you get 3 first round picks for a great player what's your chance of getting that elite player?
I'm sure it is higher in the top picks but I fully agree with that sentiment. If you can get a great player for picks and can afford to pay him do it. Chances are definitely in your favor as per my less-than-napkin math.
