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Not really - some numbers included

September 15, 2020 02:35PM
Quote
dzrams
Before we say that Goff is unlucky in that regard, shouldn't we evaluate why the QBs you mentioned routinely got those chances and Goff doesn't?

My point isn't whether the Rams would be more or less successful as a team if Goff got more opportunities to pass rather than hand off from near the goal line.

My point is simply that a QB w/more opportunities to pass for relatively easy scores is likely to see that reflected in his rating relatively to one who's handing off the ball much more often from in close. This is true regardless of overall team success at scoring. The Rams have obviously been a very successful offensive team over thee last there years, even with last year's downturn. I'm suggesting that that's not reflected in their QB's stats to the degree its reflected in many other QB stats in part because he doesn't get the opportunities they get up close.

I just went to NFL.com and looked at the number of Rams passing touchdowns as a share of all offensive touchdowns (rushing + passing). I looked at 2017-2019, Goff's three full seasons. Then I compared that to KC and Saints (elite QBs), Dallas (respected QB, great running game).


2017 Rams - 28 passing TDs out of 45 offensive TDs - 62%

2018 Rams - 32 passing out of 55 - 58%

2019 Rams - 22 passing out of 42 - 52%


2017 Cowboys - 22 passing out of 40 - 55%

2018 Cowboys - 32 passing out of 35 total - 63%

2019 Cowboys - 30 passing out of 48 total - 63%


2017 Chiefs - 26 passing out of 38 - 68%

2018 Chiefs - 50 passing out of 66 total - 76%

2019 Chiefs - 30 passing out of 46 total - 65%


2017 Saints - 23 passing out of 38 - 50%

2018 Saints - 33 passing out of 59 total - 56%

2019 Saints - 36 passing out of 48 total - 75%


What do we see? I don't think it requires much of a leap to conclude that whoever was QB-ing the Rams in those three years had significantly less opportunity to pass for scores than whoever was QB-ing the Chiefs, and somewhat less (as a percentage) than in Dallas. Notice that Mahomes' first full year was 2018. The Chiefs' "scoring philosophy" was much friendlier to QB rating than the Rams' - at least in this one important way - BEFORE Mahomes took the helm.

And, again, I'm not saying that's a bad thing. The point is to score TDs, right? Ostensibly, doesn't matter who scores 'em for the team. Gurley was a scoring machine for several years. Hard to argue with his success getting the ball in the endzone. All I'm saying is that a lot of Rams' running scores were passing scores in KC.

The Saints' numbers were unexpected to me - unexpectedly low share of passing TDs in 2018 (about in line w/the Rams), his latest MVP-runnerup year, unexpectedly huge leap last year, when he missed a third of the season. The Saints' scoring philosophy became remarkably QB-rating friendly last year. From 50% to 75% in two years is a huge jump.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Passer rating is so sensitive early on...

max296September 15, 2020 03:19AM

  agreed....

SunTzu_vs_Camus54September 15, 2020 04:35AM

  Re: Passer rating is so sensitive early on...

Ramsdude36September 15, 2020 04:52AM

  Re: sometimes the passer rating just doesn't tell the story

Speed_Kills51September 15, 2020 05:05AM

  yup, agreed, Speed

SunTzu_vs_Camus45September 15, 2020 05:32AM

  On the kill shot to Kupp

max61September 15, 2020 05:58AM

  Re: the other corners were invisible

Speed_Kills40September 15, 2020 06:13AM

  Re: On the kill shot to Kupp

zn44September 15, 2020 06:33AM

  I thought Goff was trying to run the click

no name29September 15, 2020 06:38AM

  Re: yup, agreed, Speed

zn38September 15, 2020 06:02AM

  Here

max39September 15, 2020 06:10AM

  cool...thanx Max...didn't see what ya did....

SunTzu_vs_Camus17September 15, 2020 08:22AM

  it was the McVay Podcast...

SunTzu_vs_Camus18September 15, 2020 08:21AM

  yeah I just listened

Speed_Kills17September 15, 2020 08:28AM

  Re: wow

Speed_Kills41September 15, 2020 06:11AM

  Re: wow

max38September 15, 2020 06:18AM

  again we are on the same page

Speed_Kills29September 15, 2020 06:36AM

  Re: wow

zn34September 15, 2020 06:38AM

  Re: wow

max27September 15, 2020 07:49AM

  Re: wow

zn28September 15, 2020 08:08AM

  they allowed 6 to 7 pressures v Dallas last year

Speed_Kills28September 15, 2020 08:26AM

  nope

zn25September 15, 2020 08:41AM

  pointless

Speed_Kills21September 15, 2020 08:54AM

  oh I agree

zn21September 15, 2020 09:05AM

  No agenda, Goff is better on his own

max26September 15, 2020 08:42AM

  Sure I agree with a lot of that

zn20September 15, 2020 08:53AM

  Re: Sure I agree with a lot of that

max19September 15, 2020 08:58AM

  Re: Sure I agree with a lot of that

zn18September 15, 2020 09:09AM

  Re: Sure I agree with a lot of that

zn16September 15, 2020 09:03AM

  PFF Rams use of quick passing game

Speed_Kills22September 15, 2020 09:05AM

  And the drops...

JamesJM43September 15, 2020 06:42AM

  Re: Yeah there were some bad ones

merlin30September 15, 2020 07:44AM

  Re: Yeah there were some bad ones

zn23September 15, 2020 08:12AM

  AND...

Suh-weet!32September 15, 2020 07:55AM

  Re: AND...

dzrams19September 15, 2020 09:15AM

  that wouldn't get us anywhere for one simple reason

zn19September 15, 2020 09:38AM

  Not really - some numbers included

Suh-weet!14September 15, 2020 02:35PM

  DOn't know how that passer rating exactly is figured

JimYoungblood5321September 15, 2020 07:59AM

  QB rating calculator

Speed_Kills27September 15, 2020 08:09AM

  here's an interesting stat that fits the discussion

zn28September 15, 2020 11:23AM

  As long as Goff delivers wins! And the D shows up!

Ramgator14September 15, 2020 04:24PM