Quote
dzrams
Before we say that Goff is unlucky in that regard, shouldn't we evaluate why the QBs you mentioned routinely got those chances and Goff doesn't?
My point isn't whether the Rams would be more or less successful as a team if Goff got more opportunities to pass rather than hand off from near the goal line.
My point is simply that a QB w/more opportunities to pass for relatively easy scores is likely to see that reflected in his rating relatively to one who's handing off the ball much more often from in close. This is true regardless of overall team success at scoring. The Rams have obviously been a very successful offensive team over thee last there years, even with last year's downturn. I'm suggesting that that's not reflected in their QB's stats to the degree its reflected in many other QB stats in part because he doesn't get the opportunities they get up close.
I just went to
NFL.com and looked at the number of Rams passing touchdowns as a share of all offensive touchdowns (rushing + passing). I looked at 2017-2019, Goff's three full seasons. Then I compared that to KC and Saints (elite QBs), Dallas (respected QB, great running game).
2017 Rams - 28 passing TDs out of 45 offensive TDs - 62%
2018 Rams - 32 passing out of 55 - 58%
2019 Rams - 22 passing out of 42 - 52%
2017 Cowboys - 22 passing out of 40 - 55%
2018 Cowboys - 32 passing out of 35 total - 63%
2019 Cowboys - 30 passing out of 48 total - 63%
2017 Chiefs - 26 passing out of 38 - 68%
2018 Chiefs - 50 passing out of 66 total - 76%
2019 Chiefs - 30 passing out of 46 total - 65%
2017 Saints - 23 passing out of 38 - 50%
2018 Saints - 33 passing out of 59 total - 56%
2019 Saints - 36 passing out of 48 total - 75%
What do we see? I don't think it requires much of a leap to conclude that whoever was QB-ing the Rams in those three years had significantly less opportunity to pass for scores than whoever was QB-ing the Chiefs, and somewhat less (as a percentage) than in Dallas. Notice that Mahomes' first full year was 2018. The Chiefs' "scoring philosophy" was much friendlier to QB rating than the Rams' - at least in this one important way - BEFORE Mahomes took the helm.
And, again, I'm not saying that's a bad thing. The point is to score TDs, right? Ostensibly, doesn't matter who scores 'em for the team. Gurley was a scoring machine for several years. Hard to argue with his success getting the ball in the endzone. All I'm saying is that a lot of Rams' running scores were passing scores in KC.
The Saints' numbers were unexpected to me - unexpectedly low share of passing TDs in 2018 (about in line w/the Rams), his latest MVP-runnerup year, unexpectedly huge leap last year, when he missed a third of the season. The Saints' scoring philosophy became remarkably QB-rating friendly last year. From 50% to 75% in two years is a huge jump.
