April 03, 2020 10:20PM
I don't think we can use a percentage success rate like that with any value.

1-There are only 32 offenses in the NFL.
2-There are only so many RB openings in those 32 offenses.
3-So, success is tied to opportunity.

When you get to the later rounds you have a high number of players taken

1 Round - 0
2 Round - 2
3 Round - 4
4 Round - 7
5 Round - 4
6 Round -5
7 Round - 6

So in rounds 2-3 you have 6 picks and 4-7 22 picks . So to hit your 67% success rate the 4-7 selections would need 14.74 or 15 rbs to succeed in your criteria. That's never going to happen--not enough offenses to play rookie RBs.

We should probably look at the median/mean production of the backs chosen by round in last ten drafts. I think this would allow a more fair comparison. But we need data, time, etc.

In the meantime, what if we look at the best back chosen in each round and see what the quality difference is:

2nd Round - Cook
3rd Round - Kamara
4th Round -Cohen? They all kind of are meh
5th Round-Aaron Jones
6th Round-Elijah McGuire(going off production)
7th Round-Chris Carson

I will give you that the 2nd and 3rd round backs are definitely the best. But an Aaron Jones or Chris Carson in the 5th or 7th respectfully--yes please. Kamara/Cook is a hair better than an Aaron Jones. I'll use less premium picks to take more chances to hit on those guys than using my 2nd rounders on them. Third round is the gray area for me--I'd rather take a more valuable position but I'd take a back if the quality is there.

How many 5th rounders is a 2nd rounder worth?
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Can Darrell Henderson replace Todd Gurley as Rams' featured back?

RamBill887April 03, 2020 10:57AM

  I think it's a 1A and 1B thing

JimYoungblood53316April 03, 2020 11:14AM

  Re: I think it's a 1A and 1B thing...he's bigger than Barry Sanders

Rampage2K-362April 03, 2020 11:45AM

  Re: I think it's a 1A and 1B thing...he's bigger than Barry Sanders

73Ram325April 03, 2020 11:50AM

  was anybody?

Deadpool663April 03, 2020 12:25PM

  Re: was anybody?

73Ram174April 04, 2020 03:51AM

  Re: I think it's a 1A and 1B thing...he's bigger than Barry Sanders

Rampage2K-183April 03, 2020 12:49PM

  Re: I think it's a 1A and 1B thing...he's bigger than Barry Sanders

headslapper141April 03, 2020 03:41PM

  Re: I think it's a 1A and 1B thing...he's bigger than Barry Sanders

73Ram148April 04, 2020 03:57AM

  He avged 8yd/carry TWO years in a row at Memphis....

SunTzu_vs_Camus128April 04, 2020 07:48AM

  Exactly---and it's not 1997 anymore

JimYoungblood53164April 03, 2020 05:17PM

  Re: I think it's a 1A and 1B thing...he's bigger than Barry Sanders

Classicalwit195April 03, 2020 04:10PM

  Re: I think it's a 1A and 1B thing...he's bigger than Barry Sanders

21Dog149April 04, 2020 04:57AM

  Re: I think it's a 1A and 1B thing...he's bigger than Barry Sanders

Rampage2K-155April 04, 2020 06:19AM

  Re: Can Darrell Henderson replace Todd Gurley as Rams' featured back?

cool_hand_luke220April 03, 2020 12:07PM

  Why not both at the same time?

headslapper169April 03, 2020 03:45PM

  Re: Why not both at the same time?

rampage666161April 03, 2020 05:46PM

  Re: yes...give him the rock

spagsbacker224April 03, 2020 12:28PM

  No.

alyoshamucci238April 03, 2020 01:17PM

  My only concern there is....

Suh-weet!234April 03, 2020 01:45PM

  Henderson's thing is not elusiveness it's something else

zn261April 03, 2020 06:56PM

  Re: Henderson's thing is not elusiveness it's something else

rampage666200April 03, 2020 08:09PM

  Re: +1...

dzrams150April 03, 2020 08:53PM

  Re: My only concern there is....

rampage666159April 03, 2020 09:05PM

  Re: Really!?

dzrams219April 03, 2020 03:47PM

  Re: Really!?

rampage666197April 03, 2020 06:24PM

  Re: Really!?

zn200April 03, 2020 07:53PM

  Re: Really!?

rampage666176April 03, 2020 08:04PM

  Re: Really!?

zn186April 03, 2020 08:24PM

  Re: Really!?

rampage666171April 03, 2020 08:37PM

  Re: Really!?

zn162April 03, 2020 09:07PM

  Re: Really!?

rampage666126April 03, 2020 10:20PM

  Re: Really!?

zn170April 04, 2020 01:45AM

  better response

zn154April 04, 2020 08:41AM

  He doesn't have to - RBBC

promomasterj229April 03, 2020 01:44PM

  Re: He doesn't have to - RBBC

Rampage2K-183April 03, 2020 02:24PM

  Broncos now have Lindsay and Melvin Gordon

ferragamo79176April 03, 2020 04:48PM

  Re: Broncos now have Lindsay and Melvin Gordon

oldschoolramfan156April 04, 2020 07:32AM

  Henderson can still get double digit touches

LMU93162April 04, 2020 07:44AM

  Re: Henderson can still get double digit touches

zn156April 04, 2020 08:33AM

  Re: Can Darrell Henderson replace Todd Gurley as Rams' featured back?

reggae181April 03, 2020 10:34PM

  Re: Can Darrell Henderson replace Todd Gurley as Rams' featured back?

Killrazor136April 04, 2020 12:42AM

  Kelly has done nothing - he was actually cut by the Rams

ferragamo79194April 04, 2020 06:27AM

  Re: Kelly has done nothing - he was actually cut by the Rams

reggae179April 04, 2020 08:03AM

  sorry reggae my bad

ferragamo79156April 04, 2020 02:18PM

  OL is the key

Paco70162April 04, 2020 03:27PM

  Re: OL is the key

Rampage2K-153April 04, 2020 03:43PM

  Chiefs looks at Dobbins pretty hard according to web

ferragamo79171April 04, 2020 03:55PM

  Re: Chiefs looks at Dobbins pretty hard according to web

rampage666133April 04, 2020 04:37PM

  with this dep WR draft

ferragamo79168April 05, 2020 06:50AM

  Darrel Henderson Jr Preseason Week 2 & 3 Highlights

shellback221April 05, 2020 12:00AM