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rampage666
Appreciate the discussion. My thought is RB is last of all positions besides Kicker. It has the most abundant talent pool and it is the position with the least barrier to entry. No position sees greater production from rookie and young players than RB.
A rb's success is just so dependent on game situation and how the defense plays. If the defense puts 8 in the box almost no one can run against that well. Look at the Rams over the last three years--in 2017-18 with better blocking Gurley was successful. In 2019, with lesser blocking we all saw what happened. The game of football is at its highest a team sport when running. When passing you can control time to throw, you can isolate WRs by formation and motion and make the game more 1 v 1 ish. Thus, having dominant players is those situations is of greater value.
Ask yourself how a Kareem Hunt or a Philip Lindsay does at the Rams rb in 2017-2018. I love me some Todd Gurley but rbs are not the way to win in today's NFL. If I ran a team, I would draft RBs no earlier than 3rd round and never pay for a second contract. The only caveat to that is the Kamaras and McCafferys that are dangerous as passing weapons. But then I am more paying for their passing production than rushing production so in essense they are a receiver.
And I think of it this way. The better the runner, the better the running game, and the better the running game, the better the offense (usually), which helps the defense too. (And that's even if you have a passing offense, for lots of obvious reasons.)
So if you can get a better running back by picking one earlier then that's my bet.
It's just not true, I think, that you can count on getting good RBs later. You can do it, sure, but you can't count on it.
One draft doesn't settle this but it can illustrate it. So here;s the 2017 draft. That was 3 years ago so time enough to judge things. 28 backs were taken. How many are productive hits? That is for me someone who can, at a minimum, stay healthy and can at least split the load productively with another back. At this stage I will leave out off the field issues.
I look only at rounds 2-7.
2017 RB draft is listed here: [
www.pro-football-reference.com]
Out of the 28 taken I count 7 as meeting the definition of productive I just gave. Those are Kamara, Hunt, Mixon, Cook, Carson, Jones, and Mack.
Of the 6 backs taken in rounds 2-3, 4 are hits by my criteria. 67%.
Of the 22 backs taken in rounds 4-7, 3 are hits by my critiera. 13.6%.
To me you take a back after round 3 if you already have a back or 2 and are looking for depth.
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Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 04/03/2020 09:11PM by zn.