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Saguaro
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Unless you've been able to run for a 1st down, now you're punting. Chiefs don't have a timeout left, but they've got two minutes. With the two minute warning, they can plot and the clock won't start running until they snap the ball again.
With two minutes left, and only needing a field goal, do they need those timeouts? Not if they can execute, which they have been doing with ease!
So given all of the above, McVay decided to defy conventional wisdom, because frankly, following it doesn't really cement the win at all, IMO.
Like McVay, I believe that you might be over-thinking things a bit.
Most of what you said is correct. And, as many have noted...the penalty may have changed his play-calling. But at that point, McVay has a duty to "do no harm" to his team's chances of winning. Regardless of who the QB is, I'm betting that their chances of success (in this case, getting into tying FG position) are likely significantly higher with eligible timeouts. So, you can reduce their chances by forcing them to burn all their TO's on defense.
Additionally, with no timeouts, the offense is typically forced to work the sidelines in order to stop the clock. Knowing this, the defense can manipulate its deployment to take advantage of this.
Finally, without any timeouts, a sack would really hurt the offense (especially with WR's on deep routes having to hustle back to the LOS) and they'd have to waste a down by clocking the ball. Again, further decreasing their chances (and by definition, increasing ours).
And all of this is simply worst-case scenarios if you didn't make the first down,
but forced them to burn the timeouts.McVay blew that possession, but was fortunate that it didn't cost the team.
