Re: Here's how I break it down and defend him.

Quote
Saguaro
What is conventional wisdom in that situation?

Run the ball, even if for little or no yardage, make the other team use their timeouts to stop the clock, kick it to them with minimal time left.

Of course, the other team is expecting that, so they're playing the run hard. It's not going to be easy to get a 1st down, especially if the back is being extra careful to keep a firm grip on the ball.

There was about 2:18 left (I'm going strictly by memory here, I'm not sure that's quite correct, but I believe I'm close.)
Chiefs had all three timeouts. That I know.

So let's say McVay follows conventional doctrine here. What happens?

Run the ball on 1st down - how long does that take? 5 seconds - Time out immediately by Chiefs - 2:13 left.
Run the ball on 2nd down - 5 seconds - immediate timeout by Chiefs - 2:08 left.
Run the ball on 3rd down - 5 seconds - immediate timeout by Chiefs - 2:03 left.

Unless you've been able to run for a 1st down, now you're punting. Chiefs don't have a timeout left, but they've got two minutes. With the two minute warning, they can plot and the clock won't start running until they snap the ball again.

With two minutes left, and only needing a field goal, do they need those timeouts? Not if they can execute, which they have been doing with ease!

So given all of the above, McVay decided to defy conventional wisdom, because frankly, following it doesn't really cement the win at all, IMO.

Instead, he decides that the BEST way for the Rams to get this victory and ice it is to get another 1st down.

And with the Chiefs playing run defense, the BEST and safest way to do that is with short passes.
In his calculation, that gave the Rams a better chance of winning than running the ball.

And once you commit to that, you do it, even if it went wrong on 2nd down, where the Chief made a great leaping bat at the ball.
You don't get cold feet, and go back to the run after it's too late.

As it turned out, that didn't work, and they had to give the ball back to the Chiefs anyway. And the defense came through for them.

So now everyone can 2nd guess McVay and suggest that he needs to learn, etc. As if he doesn't even know yet what most coaches would have done, and needs someone to explain it to him.

Neither running nor passing was a sure path to victory. He decided that passing (with the element of surprise) gave them the best chance.

I'm not gonna say he was wrong.

JMO, YMMV.