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Ramgator
It's crazy to bank on an Offense scoring 30 + every time.
They are 5th in points allowed per game at 16.8.
So far the offense only needs to score 30 against a top notch opposing offense.
How tight do you require the D to be?
I think raw averages are deceptive. The first 2 opponents were bad on offense.
Last 2 games they allowed 27 points a game which is 21st.
16.8 would be 5th which IMO is deceptive.
They're more 21st than 5th I think.
For now anyway. They could change. Wade tends not to stand pat.
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I think raw averages perfectly captures what they are. Prior to the last two games, they were 1st in fewest points allowed by a good margin.
They've faced some top offenses and some bad ones. (Though Oakland isn't really bad as pointed out below)
The context I was responding to is that the offense would have to score 30 every game or else we would lose 3-5 games. Since that context is over the course of the season, we're not gonna face a great offense every game. We're gonna face a mix of bad offenses, good ones, and a few great ones.
So if they average 5th by being 1st against bad offenses and 21st against great ones, I don't see 5 losses on the schedule. It just means they'll need to score 30 against teams with great offenses. So far they've played 3 teams in the top 12 for yards per game in Oakland, LAC, and Minn.
IOW, if nothing changes, they'll need to score 30+ against NO, Atl, KC, and maybe Philly if they get healthy. Those are the remaining teams on the schedule that look like they have great offenses.
I think they'll be fine if they don't score 30 against the vast majority of the remaining games.
