Re: OK. I did some numbers. VERY INTERESTING!!!
| September 10, 2018 01:36PM |
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max
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zn
The problem with that approach is that it is only meaningful if you compare it to every single other playoff qb.
And then you get to say, x percentage of the time, it's not their fall cause the defense caved.
But see all normal "comeback percentage" stats already account for that because they even things out. It's like completion percentage. Yeah if you look at individual series you can quibble with overall qb percentage. But it evens out for all situations and is a valid stat.
Otherwise all you did here was show me that Rodgers is the only qb who is so comeback efficient he would win all the time if he just weren't being let down by others.
A problem Brady doesn't have, interestingly.....
So it's just improbable stuff unless you show me that this is different from other qbs.
Heck for all you know you may find one that was ALWAYS let down by the defense and so has zero wins.Would that guy be a better qb than Rodgers? (I deliberately flirt with the absurd here.)
So anyway no sorry don't buy it.
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Do a quick easy test.
Pick a QB. Let's say Brady.
Have you ever seen him with the ball at the end of a playoff game with a chance to get the winning score and he doesn't come though? Well I can think of a couple right off the top of my head, including last year, and then again against the Giants.
Now pick another elite QB who is thought to be clutch, take Brees. Same thing.
That has not happened to Rodgers since his first playoff appearance in 2009.
My view is that my analysis makes perfect sense. And Rodgers is very clutch in the playoffs WHEN IT COUNTS THE MOST.
Also, and this is very important, just counting comeback wins is only counting numerators, its not enough, you need the the ORRECT denominator too. When someone says Rodgers only has 11 wins, that is meaning unless you tell me how many times he failed WITH THE BALL IN HIS HANDS, not just how many times he lost the game down by less than 8 points.
I know what you meant. But your analysis depends on being let down by the defense (which ought to make the 2014 Dallas game a win for the GB defense since the Boyz had 6 minutes left in the 4th to score).
My point is that those things even out and it would take a special stat for every qb in the playoffs to say whether or not the others just didn't happen to be let down by the defense.
So if he's an exception it would have to be demonstrated.
EITHER WAY
I may be skeptical but you did a lot of work, it's an interesting discussion, you make interesting points, and I appreciate the quality of the discussion.
We just part ways with a different view of whether AR is USUALLY a clutch qb. Which personally I can live with .
BUT...
it's almost game time.
Go Rams. Enjoy the game Max old friend.
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