Re: OK. I did some numbers. VERY INTERESTING!!!
| September 10, 2018 12:51PM |
Quote
max
I looked at every playoff game that Rodgers played in his career.
He played in 16 playoff games from 2009 to 2016 seasons.
Here's what I found.
There were 10 games that had no relevance to comeback or game winning situations. That means the Packers either had the lead in the 4th quarter and won the game, OR, they were down by over 10 points (actually, 14 and 17 points down) in the 4th quarter and lost.
That left 6 games that are of true relevance for this exercise.
Here they are:
Game 1 - 2009 against AZ , Rodgers ties up the game in the 4th quarter only to lose the game on a strip sack fumble for DTD. Loses 51-45 OT
Game 2 - 2013 against SF , Rodgers ties up game late in 4th quarter, NEVER GETS BALL BACK. Loses 23-20
Game 3 - 2014 against DAL , Rodgers comeback win. 26-21
Game 4 - 2014 against SEA , Rodgers ties up game late in 4th quarter, NEVER GETS BALL BACK. Loses 28-22 OT
Game 5 - 2015 against AZ, Rodgers ties up game late in 4ht quarter, NEVER GETS BALL BACK. Loses 26-20 OT
Game 6 - 2016 against DAL, Rodgers comeback win. 34-31
The way I see this is that Rodgers has been snake bit since his first playoff game in 2009. Out of those remaining 5 playoff games, 3 of them were decided by things beyond his control. And 2 of them he led a comeback win.
Take my analysis anyway you want, but one thing it tells me is to take every media analyst with a grain of salt. that includes ESPN, FO, PFF, and all the rest.
The big takeaway is that Rodgers has been unfairly criticized by the articles saying he's not good at comebacks. As my analysis shows, I see a QB who since his first playoff game has delivered a comeback win every time he was given a chance.
The problem with that approach is that it is only meaningful if you compare it to every single other playoff qb.
And then you get to say, x percentage of the time, it's not their fall cause the defense caved.
But see all normal "comeback percentage" stats already account for that because they even things out. It's like completion percentage. Yeah if you look at individual series you can quibble with overall qb percentage. But it evens out for all situations and is a valid stat.
Otherwise all you did here was show me that Rodgers is the only qb who is so comeback efficient he would win all the time if he just weren't being let down by others.
A problem Brady doesn't have, interestingly.....
So it's just improbable stuff unless you show me that this is different from other qbs.
Heck for all you know you may find one that was ALWAYS let down by the defense and so has zero wins.
Would that guy be a better qb than Rodgers? (I deliberately flirt with the absurd here.)So anyway no sorry don't buy it.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/10/2018 12:52PM by zn.
