This is an excerpt from an article in today's The Athletic. And it is quite stunning.
In 2005, a research paper on overconfidence in the NFL revealed analysis on decision-making during the draft. Key themes:
Evaluating prospects is difficult. Our stats back it up: Across the past 13 years, first-round WRs were either a bust or a reach 63 percent of the time. The hit rate for top-10 QBs was not much better, with teams drafting stars at just a 26 percent rate.
So, you stand a 74% chance of being wrong no matter how high you draft a QB, and a 63% chance of being wrong no matter how high you draft a WR. Clearly it is the intangible unknowns that are far more important in those 2 positions than in the quantifiable knowns. And, the unknowns are essentially unknowable other than in hindsight.
I've said for a long time that it is an absolute loser to draft a QB in the first round, and that a WR isn't far off. SO DON'T DO IT!!
That said, I do get it that where else do QB needy teams look to get their QB? The best answer is to pay whatever it takes to take an upper level vet NFL QB. After that, it is pure crap shoot with the odds being greatly against you. Sure, you may get lucky. Someone always wins the lottery. But it sure isn't by skill.
WRs are almost as bad.
I don't know if Snead considers this or not. But as it stands the Rams are NOT QB needy. Nor are they WR needy. So to take a hugely risky move on a QB or WR in the first round borders on negligence. They stand a far better chance of getting a starting Edge or DT there than any QB or WR.
I believe Snead is pretty enlightened, and since he has stated over and over again they he drafts for need, the Rams first picks will be Edge and DT. But, will he also think that trading down and piling up more darts to throw at the draft balloons is the better choice? Stay tuned.
