Well I looked again and this time, yes, I saw some people (in the medical world) who said 4 years. However, having looked again after being prompted by this discussion, it still looks like the most commonly stated time frame is 12-18 months. The big problem of course will be distribution--it involves millions of people.
In terms of your hypothetical, though--I actually don't understand the question. I mean I get it conceptually, but I don't get why you think it's a real question. For argument's sake, would I wear a mask for 4 years? At that question I can only blink and wonder why you would ask that. Of course I would wear a mask for 4 years. Why wouldn't I? It;s not just that it's right to protect others. It's more than that, In the history of humanity, we've had to endure far far worse things than wearing a mask. I would be too embarrassed in the face of that history to say "no." So, let's say one spirit from our human past says, "I survived the London blitz, even though the city burned around me." Can you imagine me responding to that with this--"cool, in contrast I thought it was asking too much to wear a mask."Anyway. Here's some sources. I don't know what the truth is, no one does, but it is common to say 12-18 months, for a lot of reasons.
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www.mayoclinic.org]
it's unlikely that a COVID-19 vaccine will become available sooner than six months after clinical trials start. Realistically, a vaccine will take 12 to 18 months or longer to develop and test in human clinical trials. And we don't know yet whether an effective vaccine is possible for this virus.
If a vaccine is approved, it will take time to produce, distribute and administer to the global population. Because people have no immunity to COVID-19, it's likely that two vaccinations will be needed, three to four weeks apart.
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. [
hub.jhu.edu]
A year to 18 months is very optimistic. Typically, a safe and effective vaccine will take anywhere from 10 to 15 years for development if one is starting from scratch. The good news here is that coronaviruses aren't novel, and there are groups that have already been working on such viruses for a while, especially since the MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV epidemics. So we are not starting from scratch, but even then 18 months is quite optimistic.
Quote
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www.theguardian.com]
When will we have a Covid-19 vaccine? Public-facing scientists such as the UK’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and his US counterpart, Anthony Fauci, keep repeating that it won’t be before 12 to 18 months. But other voices – including some of those in the race to create a vaccine themselves – have suggested that it could be as early as June. Who is right?
The former, probably, but it’s complicated because this pandemic is forcing change at almost every step in the process by which a new vaccine arrives at a needle near us. “It really depends on what you mean by ‘having a vaccine’,” says Marian Wentworth, president and CEO of Management Sciences for Health, a Massachusetts-based global not-for-profit organisation that seeks to build resilient health systems, and a long-time observer of vaccine development. “If you mean one that can be used in a mass vaccination campaign, allowing us all to get on with our lives, then 12 to 18 months is probably right.”
Quote
. [
www.medicalnewstoday.com]
based on their knowledge and experience, scientists say that developing a coronavirus vaccine:
could take at least a year
might not be possible during the current outbreak
could take 12–18 months
Quote
. [
abc11.com]
even with so many vaccine candidates in the works, Fauci has said at the earliest, a vaccine may take 12 to 18 months before it's widely available. While this may seem like unnecessary red tape, researchers say it's the process working properly.
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/10/2020 06:43PM by zn.
