Chasing Calvin: Can Cooper Kupp break Megatron's single-season receiving record?

[theramswire.usatoday.com] Chasing Calvin: Can Cooper Kupp break Megatron's single-season receiving record?


Cameron DaSilva
December 12, 2021 9:59 am PT
When the NFL announced its new 17-game schedule in 2021, fans and analysts immediately looked at the single-season records that could be broken with teams playing an extra game. Calvin Johnson’s record of 1,964 yards in the 2012 season was mentioned, but Cooper Kupp wasn’t the name brought up as the player who could potentially break it.

Yet, through 12 games, Kupp has a shot to eclipse Johnson’s number. He’ll get to play one more game than Johnson did in 2012, but if Kupp breaks the record, he’ll still etch his name in NFL history.


For the rest of the year, we’ll be checking in on Kupp’s pursuit of Johnson’s single-season record, updating his pace after each game. With five weeks to go, Kupp will not only need to keep up his current pace, but improve it slightly if he wants to top Megatron.

Stats through 12 games
Johnson: 86 catches, 1,428 yards, 5 TDs
Kupp: 100 catches, 1,366 yards, 11 TDs
It’s pretty incredible that through 12 games, Kupp has 14 more catches than Johnson but 62 fewer yards. Johnson averaged 16.6 yards per reception compared to Kupp’s 13.7, which is how Megatron put up more yards on 14 fewer receptions.

At this point in the season, Johnson was averaging 119 yards per game compared to Kupp’s 113.8 per game, both of which led the NFL through 12 games.


Johnson's performance in 13th game
In Week 14, which was Johnson’s 13th game, he kept things right on track. In a 27-20 loss to the Packers, Johnson caught 10 passes for 118 yards, being targeted 13 times by Matthew Stafford.

His yardage total was actually slightly lower than his season average, but only by 1 yard. It wasn’t until Week 16 that he really erupted, catching 11 passes for 225 yards against the Falcons.

That put him on pace to break the single-season record, which was 1,848 yards set by Jerry Rice in 1995.


Kupp's current pace
Through 12 games, Kupp has averaged 113.8 yards per game. His current pace extrapolated over 17 games works out to 1,934.6 yards per game, or 1,935 if you round up.

Johnson’s record sits at 1,964 yards, or about 29 more than Kupp is currently averaging. Obviously, he played one fewer game than Kupp will, but that’s no fault of Kupp’s.

In order for Kupp to break Johnson’s record, he’ll need to average 116 yards per game on the year, so he must increase his weekly pace by about 2-3 yards to catch Johnson.


Rams' remaining opponents
When it comes to throwing the ball, the Rams have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. Three of their games are against some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, while their other two games come against teams that have allowed among the fewest yards through the air in the league.

Here’s where each team’s pass defense ranks in yards allowed per game and Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.

Week 14: at Cardinals

205.1 passing yards allowed per game (4th in NFL)
-14.6% pass DVOA (3rd in NFL)
Week 15: vs. Seahawks

275.8 passing yards allowed per game (32nd in NFL)
16.9% pass DVOA (26th in NFL)
Week 16: at Vikings

251.9 passing yards allowed per game (23rd in NFL)
5.0% pass DVOA (13th in NFL)
Week 17: at Ravens

272.4 passing yards allowed per game (31st in NFL)
17.3% pass DVOA (27th in NFL)
Week 18: vs. 49ers

205.1 passing yards allowed per game (4th in NFL)
7.9% pass DVOA (17th in NFL)