Assessing our Run D (Hat Tip to Saguaro)

I was planning this post … and then saw Saguaro doing almost exactly what I planned to do: analyze selected gash runs McCaffrey pulled off against us. I’ll cite some of his insights and after beginning with some broader points.

First, Bryce Hager appears to me to be useless. I never saw him make the slightest difference in challenging a running play. That’s a big weakness, given that Cory, great as he is, is at his best playing up the field. We are still lacking a physically imposing, thumping ILB.

Second, let me offer a sort of generalized impression. Elite run defenses usually penetrate aggressively, suffocating running attempts before they can get started. We don’t do that, and my strong sense is that we don’t really try to do it. I think Wade deploys our lads against the run essentially as he does against the pass. He plays a bit loose to contain, limit, and look for a big play.

This plays into the whole meta-discussion of the value of run defense. Now, a containment approach to defending the run is not my preference. However, it does make a lot of sense in today’s league. Given a productive offense, a contained running game should not be enough.

However, there is an important condition there. Containing the running game should be enough … as long as you actually contain it! But if you let a team with a strong running attack go off at a level that can competitively challenge your offensive production, you have trouble. And we have repeatedly done that. Sunday was another example of a game in which he had established dominance but then let running plays bring the other team to the verge of stealing the game. We have done that with SEA, with SF, and others, and we damn near let McCaffrey beat us on Sunday.

The question is why? Saguaro asks, “Why didn't they seem to expect McCaffrey to be the main focus? Who else was going to beat them?” And that has so often been the case: we let predictable rushing nearly beat us. How? Why?

OK, I did pretty much what Saguaro did. I selected plays from the game and studied them using the coach’s film option on the NFL.com package. My choices differed in that I disregarded the ones in the late 4th Q. I think those were affected by heat, and CAR broke down as well defending Todd. Like, Saguaro, I started with play #2 in the game.

Q1 14:26 2 and 5 from the CAR 30. 12 yard gain

Saguaro describes the play well—the formations, the action. I would point out that the play is a counter: action left, cut back right, with a TE/HB in effect pulling from left flank to kick out.

Now, to me, the key here is Fowler. He crashes from his left and approaches the pulling TE/HB. The play is right in front of him, and one of the best RBs in the league is approaching inside the block into a sizable seam.

Fowler is in a tough spot. He has to contain, but he also has to keep McC from cutting up into space. This is a lot to ask, but he needs to take the guy on—after all, it’s not a T or G—with some pressure to the inside but still in position to string it out wide. My problem with what Fowler does is that he goes hard upfield and to the outside, allowing the lead blocker to simply seal him off and conceding a big running lane.

There are other people involved, of course, But the counter action pulled most of them to our right, and in a play like that, it often comes down to 1 guy making a play to blunt the blocking advantage. NFL defenders can and do make plays like this, but Fowler, to my eye, impatiently pushed upfield and made it easy for McC to run into open grass.

Q2 12:37 1 and 10 CAR 32 right after a kickoff return 13 yard gain

Saguaro doesn’t look at this one. CAR is in a running set: 3 wide, offset 1 with a FB and a TE in motion to block. We are in a standard 3-4 with deep safeties.

OK. The LBs who matter here are Clay Matthews (LOLB ) and Hagar (LILB ). The TE has come in motion from outside to stand off the ball, just inside Matthews. This could very well seem to be a pass-blocking setup. But Matthews is now bracketed to his outside by a WR and to the inside by the TE. The FB is also to the right of C, inside Matthews. So there are 4 blockers threatening him, and he has only Fox, head up on the T, in that corridor. And McC is the I back. I think a running attack is a significant threat here.

Matthews, however, immediately charges upfield, outside the TE who only needs to take a step and shield him from pursuing back. He just takes himself out of the play.

Hagar takes like 2 steps to the INSIDE, not reading the threat to the outside, and gets engulfed. Nothing from him. Fox gets double teamed, stands up the T, but can do nothing as McC lopes into green grass. JJ takes on a blocking WR, but surrenders outside contain and shades to the INSIDE, despite the fact that a huge lane has opened to the outside. All 3 pursuers—CM, BH, and JJ—have taken themselves out of the play. Neither McC nor the blockers really needs to do anything.

Q2 :50 2 and 17 on the CAR 17 after the sack and TO. 12 yard gain

This is classic prevent defense slackness. We score a FG and register a sack deep in CAR territory. We call a TO (the 1st one made sense to me) … and then we back off. It’s a passing down, but really? CAR is in a defensive situation late in the half, And we have so often given up gash plays on the ground.

Saguaro did not analyze this play. But what he observes in general fits it perfectly: “I do NOT understand that wide defensive split in certain situations. It's an invitation to run up the gut, and it often appears when you study big yardage runs.”

CAR is in a shotgun. We counter with a nickel and a weird alignment of our DL. We have Brockers and AD outside the tackles … and no nose. There is no defender inside of the CAR tackles. AD goes upfield and takes himself out of the play. Brockers closes somewhat but gets trapped. And there is no one there. 12 yards. CAR can convert with a short pass. They do and go on to score 3.

OK. What do I see? I see a relatively loose run defense designed to contain. I see alignments that open seams on their own. And I see ill discipline in defenders who take the easy route, don’t necessarily fight pressure, and yield lanes.

Now, I am not a D savant by any means. It’s hard for me to properly judge an NFL defense. The game is playing at lightning speed and all defenses make wrong reads or hesitate or just get beat. You can’t stop everything, and guarding against 1 tactic may open yourselves to another.

But I do think we can say that we aren’t getting beat because we don’t have the power or talent. We are getting beat by poor reads and lack of toughness stringing things out. The gash plays come from breakdowns. It’s tiresome, and it jeopardizes our wins. If we could CONTAIN running games, which seems to be all Wade is asking for, we could win these games with some margin for error. As it is, we have very little.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/12/2019 10:14AM by RFL.