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george_allen
I based my guess of an average 26.4M on Derek Carr's contract hyped up. I thought it was the closest actual contract to what we've seen so far of Goff, and I think i was generous given Goff's sample size: a half a year of poor performance - excusable given a rookie year with a poor team, 2nd year almost as good as Carr's 2nd year but was it because he was under a quarterback whisperer who could do it with any upper 2 quartile quarterback? Not enough historical data to deem Goff a 30m+ a year quarterback yet. The next 2 years will tell the tale. I do hope he turns out to be worthy of more. I felt the Jimmy Garrapolo contract was more of the Patriots fleecing teams with franchise QB mirages.
BTW - Rams cleared $7M of 2018 cap space by restructuring Woods and Whitworth supposedly to cover Donald signing. But they only spent $2m of that on Donald and are now $6.5M favorable to the 2018 cap allowance. Are they looking to roll the overage to 2019 or is something afoot ....
2nd contracts like the ones we;re talking about though aren't based on performance rankings. Well they are only in this very broad, very general sense---to earn a starting qb 2nd contract you have to be considered a starting caliber qb who will continue to be one in the coming years. That's it, that's the performance criteria.
What determines the amounts given to starting qbs up for 2nd contracts is simply the passage of time. Every year the basic amount goes up. Carr got 25 M in 2017, Cousins 28 M in 2018. No one compares Cousins's performance to Carr's. They're just all considered starting qbs and each year the amount for that type of player goes up.
(There are minor variations in contracts, but they're not that consequential. So for example the 2nd contracts in 2018 for WRs were around 16 M. Cooks got a little more, Landry got a little less, but it's all around 16 M give or take).
So if Goff comes up in 2020 and they offer him 25 M because they equate his performance with Carr's, it would be a huge mistake. The agent would simply say that THIS year, a few years after Carr, the amount is now 30+ something M. And the agent would be right.
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