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Talib - I don't see why he wouldn't be back. He'll be paid a very modest $9M in 2019 so unless his performance drastically declines this year which is unlikely, I think it's a lock he'll be back.
Joyner - He's gone. And I said so the minute they franchise tagged him. They can't keep everyone and letting a DB walk is probably where they save money. Fortunately, Snead has been very good at drafting DBs.
Suh - IMO, this was always intended on both sides to be a one year relationship. Under normal circumstances I'd say it's near a 100% chance he won't be back. However, I see an outside chance that if things don't go well in AD negotiations or take a turn for the worse, the Rams could possibly want to keep Suh as insurance for AD leaving. Call it Plan B. I don't think they can afford both long term though.
Whitworth - I'm guessing there's an 80% chance he's back. I think both he and the Rams signed a 3 year deal on purpose due to his age. I agree that a Rams SB win increases the likelihood of retirement. OTOH, if they don't win the SB but get close I think he'll want to be back for another shot at it.
Saffold - It's hard to say. I could easily see the Rams deciding to save money here and he becomes a cap casualty. I think he'll be the most expensive to resign out of the three pending free agents of he, Hav, and Brown. OTOH, they could decide to keep him in the budget which IMO makes it more likely that Brown and Hav walk. I see us keeping two at most, and possibly only one of the three. And IMO Saffold is the linchpin of that decision.
Just continuing the conversation.
Here are the top cap numbers for 2019. These are just the cap hits, not possible savings, which in many cases are different numbers. I am guessing at Cooks's cap hit since over.the.cap hasn't factored it in yet.
Cooks 16 M estimated.
Andrew Whitworth $12,416,668
Michael Brockers $10,750,000
Todd Gurley $9,630,000
Marcus Peters $9,069,000
Mark Barron $9,000,000
Jared Goff $8,889,259
Aqib Talib $8,000,000
Nickell Robey-Coleman $6,050,000
The free agents in this conversation are Joyner, Donald and Saffold.
Rams at this point have 56 + M in (estimated) cap space for 2019, but that's before signing draft picks.
I am going to assume they sign Donald. I am not even going to factor in a tag in 2019 for Donald, since that scenario is too messy to contemplate in the context of this issue. I will assume that a hit for Donald is anywhere from 21 to 24 M. That would leave anywhere from 35 to 32 M depending.
Cooks is a new contract and not in jeopardy. Of the other top contracts, I see Whitworth, Brockers, Gurley, Peters, Goff, and Robey-Coleman as locks.
Others have made Whitworth more "maybe" but I think he's a lock. They have too many FAs, too many young draft picks, and then Sullivan with one year left,. so, IMO they just need Whitworth to be stable on the OL. I think only injury or a complete regression of his skills as changing that. Even if there's some ersosion, they can always switch him to ROT or guard while drafting a left OT to replace him. Starting rookie LOTs is just not a rare thing. The key is, they need him for the experience if nothing else as they transition to a new OL full of young newcomers.
If the Rams decide the cap is an issue, possible cuts include Barron and Talib. I name those 2 as possible cuts because they are at positions where the Rams have either built depth (ILB ) or are rightly famous for finding players (DB ). But all of this depends. It will be situational. Certainly an erosion of skill would matter in each case but that can't be predicted. I do wonder if they can really sustain having 2 CBs both costing 8-9 M. Maybe they can. But it's a fair question, especially when odds are they will be trying to extend Peters. Another possibility is that they keep Talib and Peters doesn't work out for whatever reason. This is all speculation. The CB situation is not easy to predict. With Talib the only factor would be money + age. Even if he is still playing well, at some point they could simply ask, is this worth it (2 expensive corners) or should we just create the future now.
I think of Joyner as gone. It has been said before and you just said it again--the combination of Snead and the coaches from 2012-17 have come up with DB after DB. I think tagging Joyner costs too much. And I like Joyner and always have. But, you can't keep everyone.
I think maybe I LIKE the idea of keeping Saffold because, again, they're transitioning to a new OL so keeping a veteran who is also their best lineman would help a lot. Plus Kromer has a thing for star guards. He finds them and he coaches them up and he values them. Given that logic (and that personal preference) I think it;s possible they keep Saffold. They're are top guards in the league older than he is and 3rd contracts for top guards are not that heavy. Maybe a 2-year at 8 M per year? If they did that that would leave them anywhere from 27 M to 24 M depending (and that's with signing Donald).
The OL has to be development of this year's young guys, plus adding draft picks in 2019 in addition to any other acquisitions they come up with (Barksdale types, Nutten types, Garret Reynolds types, Blythe types...cast-offs the Rams like and who fit).
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