Quote
jemach
use some of those six rounders to see if you find a diamond in the rough.
We don't need the guy to start this year so he would have time to develop. Yes...I don't mind taking a developmental guy in round 6...BUT NOT rounds 1 or 2.
If there is no LOT worth the pick at 23 this year then they won't take one. If they DO like someone at that spot, then, yeah they are considering it...they would be dumb not to.
BUT either way ... the math is far against your wishful scenario of a developmental 6th rounder.
I have typed this up before but the odds of finding a starting caliber LOT after round 2 are less than 5%. As I said you might as well wish upon a star.
To get the less that 5% number, I looked at OTs taken after round 3 from 2006-2015. That's a decade and far enough back so you can judge. There were 122 OTs taken in that period and only 6 became valid NFL starters at LOT.
BTW if you do the numbers for just the 6th & 7th rounds combined, it goes to 1 out of 50, or 2%.
Really think of it the same as trying to find a starting qb after round 2. It's not that different in terms of the odds.
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2018 09:43AM by zn.
