I'm a guy who has watched a lot of football for over 50 years, and pay attention. So I get a feel for guys, but by no means can I evaluate them like some guy on this board (whose evaluations I really appreciate).

But this is what I see. And I've heard some pretty good former players and GMs more or less echo the same thoughts.
But the evidence for WRs being about in the same category of "crap shoot" as in taking a QB (first round) is pretty overwhelming.
If a team is going to select a WR in the first round, they better be awfully sure.