Your math falters because comparing apples to oranges

It really is comes down to this.

Does the extra games rest in a home game in the first round mean more than a not having to go to New Orleans in the third round.

1) By not sitting the starters, does that put the first game at more risk

or

2) is playing a road game at New Orleans in the third game more risk than playing them at home.

The problem your math in the 3 scenarios below is event #1 and #2 are the same regardless on all scenarios for both playoff games. The reality is sitting starters will have almost no impact on that first home playoff game unless there is an injury. I do agree with you that sequence under C below is the least likely of happening as I give the Saints about a 25% chance of winning 2 playoff games as I feel they have a better QB than then the Vikings and the Eagles but have to win a 1st round home game and a 2nd round road game but even so, on all A, B, C, the first 2 weeks probabilities really don't change so even though C is less likely than A and B, all you have done really is reduced your chances in that 3rd game.


The way to look at mathematically is:

A) Not play starters and playing third game on road

1) Round #1 - Rams 80% chance of winning
2) Round #2 - Rams 40% chance of winning
3) Round #3 - Rams 30% chance of winning

Play starters and still play third game on road

1) Round #1 - Rams 80% chance of winning
2) Round #2 - Rams 40% chance of winning
3) Round #3 - Rams 30% chance of winning


C) Play starters and play third game at home

1) Round #1 - Rams 80% chance of winning
2) Round #2 - Rams 40% chance of winning
3) Round #3 - Rams 70% chance of winning