Goff controversy is a red herring: & Here is some More Rock
| September 09, 2016 12:35PM |
[thecauldron.si.com]
The Future In L.A. Looks … Uncertain?
No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Jared Goff is tasked with leading the Los Angeles Rams back to glory. The numbers suggest that won’t happen. For years now, the Rams should have been able to ride their dominant defense to a postseason berth for the first time since 2005.
Three wins in the club’s last four meetings against the mighty Seattle Seahawks have demonstrated just how much potential this team has, yet inconsistency against everyone else has losing records every year for a decade.
Poor quarterback play has received almost all of the blame for that such “consistency.” Whether it be injuries to Sam Bradford or last year’s Nick Foles disaster, the Rams have lacked an on-field leader to improve the fortunes of the franchise.
That need caused the newly-minted Los Angeles Rams to trade up and draft Cal’s Jared Goff with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. A tall kid with a rocket arm and deadly accuracy, L.A. sees Goff as the answer. With him, so goes the conventional wisdom, the Rams will be a playoff team — sooner rather than later.
And then came this season’s edition of HBO’s Hard Knocks, which has given us our first look at Goff since draft night. Aside from him learning where the sun rises and sets, he doesn’t seem too different from any promising young player.
His physical tools are evident, giving Rams fans hope for the future. Unfortunately, such hope may be misguided. A good number of measures suggest that Goff is going to have limited success — if any — at the NFL level.
Although Goff was heralded as the unquestioned top quarterback prospect in the 2016 draft class, his abilities weren’t actually able to translate into wins at Cal — the Golden Bears went just 14–23 over the past three years. That’s the worst record of any quarterback taken in the first round since the Denver Broncos drafted Jay Cutler in 2006 (9–26 at Vanderbilt).
Yes, Goff’s decision to go to a struggling program like Cal certainly didn’t help, but other quarterback prospects have had more success in similar situations. Robert Griffin III went 22–18 with a Baylor program that had never been good. Blake Bortles carried UCF to a BCS bowl win.
Matt Ryan led Boston College to the best seasons in program history. Heck, even Ben Roethlisberger made us care about the Miami football program in Ohio. So what does any of this mean for the Rams?
Only two quarterbacks (Mark Rypien, Johnny Unitas) have won Super Bowls as a starting quarterback after posting a losing career record in college. Goff may very well join that group at some point in his career, but history — especially recent history — certainly isn’t in his favor.
Perhaps more alarming is the fact that Goff’s poor play in Cal’s biggest games — not that of his teammates — are why his record wasn’t great. In the school’s six games against Pac-12 teams that finished with winning conference records last season, Goff threw 14 touchdown passes against nine interceptions. In the other seven games Cal played in 2015, he racked up 29 touchdowns against just four interceptions to pad his stats.
In the NFL, and especially in the NFC West, there are no games off. There are no cupcakes, especially defensively. The Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals happen to have two of the best defenses in the entire league, groups that particularly excel at forcing turnovers. Arizona finished second in the league in turnovers forced last season, and the Legion of Boom has led the league in scoring defense each of the last four years.
Further complicating matters is the spread offense Goff played in at Cal. We know how little success quarterbacks from similar systems have had in the NFL, so it’s probably unrealistic to expect Goff to be the exception.
Since 2010, 20 quarterbacks from spread college offenses have been drafted — seven of whom were first-round picks. Of those 20, only two quarterbacks are starting for the teams that originally drafted them, and one of those (Marcus Mariota) was a rookie last season. It is worth noting that Griffin and Brock Osweiler, both products of spread offenses at Baylor and Arizona State, respectively, do enter this season as projected starters for their new teams.
Furthermore, only two players from spread systems, Cam Newton and, yes, Tim Tebow, have won playoff games. In fact, Newton is the only player to compile a winning record after starting more than 16 games, and he’s the obvious exception to the spread offense jinx, leading the Carolina Panthers to three straight playoff appearances while winning MVP last season. He is also physically different from the other quarterbacks on this list (and really everyone else ever).
Newton’s ascension from questionable passer to NFL MVP can be largely credited to his mental understanding of the game from college to now. He even has a mental strength coach, who raves about Newton’s uncanny ability to “learn and process information very quickly.” Panthers coaches back that up, raving about his command of the playbook and improvement in his ability to read defenses, which barring an injury-riddled 2014 season, has led to him cutting down on turnovers every year.
For Goff, this remains a massive problem, it seems. He hasn’t been able to fully grasp the playbook or show an ability to read NFL defenses based on what we’ve seen thus far. Goff completed just 44.9 percent of his passes in the preseason, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions — while fumbling the ball three times. His slight frame has also been something of a red flag; he had to be pulled out of two of four games due to injury.
Rams head coach Jeff Fisher has made it a point to talk about how much Goff has “progressed” whenever he can get in front of a microphone, but his actions have belied his words. (He demoted Goff from backup to third-string.) Goff will be inactive in L.A.’s season opener against the San Francisco 49ers.
“He’s going to be a great player,” Fisher said of Goff. “As we’ve said from Day One, we’re not rushing him. We don’t have to rush it. I’m really happy with where he is right now.”
The reality is that if the Rams were happy with Goff, he’d be in line for a promotion to starter (as was expected) — not inactive. Los Angeles also does have to rush him. Fisher and general manager Les Snead mortgaged their futures with the massive trade up to get Goff, and if he can’t even get on the field, it will likely spell doom for them.
Ultimately, Goff’s ability to make the transition from spread to pro offense will largely determine how good the Rams will be in their first decade in Los Angeles. It’s a transition that he seems to be failing early on, and history tells us there isn’t much hope that he’ll be able to get back on track.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/09/2016 12:45PM by Florida_Ram.
The Future In L.A. Looks … Uncertain?
No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Jared Goff is tasked with leading the Los Angeles Rams back to glory. The numbers suggest that won’t happen. For years now, the Rams should have been able to ride their dominant defense to a postseason berth for the first time since 2005.
Three wins in the club’s last four meetings against the mighty Seattle Seahawks have demonstrated just how much potential this team has, yet inconsistency against everyone else has losing records every year for a decade.
Poor quarterback play has received almost all of the blame for that such “consistency.” Whether it be injuries to Sam Bradford or last year’s Nick Foles disaster, the Rams have lacked an on-field leader to improve the fortunes of the franchise.
That need caused the newly-minted Los Angeles Rams to trade up and draft Cal’s Jared Goff with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. A tall kid with a rocket arm and deadly accuracy, L.A. sees Goff as the answer. With him, so goes the conventional wisdom, the Rams will be a playoff team — sooner rather than later.
And then came this season’s edition of HBO’s Hard Knocks, which has given us our first look at Goff since draft night. Aside from him learning where the sun rises and sets, he doesn’t seem too different from any promising young player.
His physical tools are evident, giving Rams fans hope for the future. Unfortunately, such hope may be misguided. A good number of measures suggest that Goff is going to have limited success — if any — at the NFL level.
Although Goff was heralded as the unquestioned top quarterback prospect in the 2016 draft class, his abilities weren’t actually able to translate into wins at Cal — the Golden Bears went just 14–23 over the past three years. That’s the worst record of any quarterback taken in the first round since the Denver Broncos drafted Jay Cutler in 2006 (9–26 at Vanderbilt).
Yes, Goff’s decision to go to a struggling program like Cal certainly didn’t help, but other quarterback prospects have had more success in similar situations. Robert Griffin III went 22–18 with a Baylor program that had never been good. Blake Bortles carried UCF to a BCS bowl win.
Matt Ryan led Boston College to the best seasons in program history. Heck, even Ben Roethlisberger made us care about the Miami football program in Ohio. So what does any of this mean for the Rams?
Only two quarterbacks (Mark Rypien, Johnny Unitas) have won Super Bowls as a starting quarterback after posting a losing career record in college. Goff may very well join that group at some point in his career, but history — especially recent history — certainly isn’t in his favor.
Perhaps more alarming is the fact that Goff’s poor play in Cal’s biggest games — not that of his teammates — are why his record wasn’t great. In the school’s six games against Pac-12 teams that finished with winning conference records last season, Goff threw 14 touchdown passes against nine interceptions. In the other seven games Cal played in 2015, he racked up 29 touchdowns against just four interceptions to pad his stats.
In the NFL, and especially in the NFC West, there are no games off. There are no cupcakes, especially defensively. The Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals happen to have two of the best defenses in the entire league, groups that particularly excel at forcing turnovers. Arizona finished second in the league in turnovers forced last season, and the Legion of Boom has led the league in scoring defense each of the last four years.
Further complicating matters is the spread offense Goff played in at Cal. We know how little success quarterbacks from similar systems have had in the NFL, so it’s probably unrealistic to expect Goff to be the exception.
Since 2010, 20 quarterbacks from spread college offenses have been drafted — seven of whom were first-round picks. Of those 20, only two quarterbacks are starting for the teams that originally drafted them, and one of those (Marcus Mariota) was a rookie last season. It is worth noting that Griffin and Brock Osweiler, both products of spread offenses at Baylor and Arizona State, respectively, do enter this season as projected starters for their new teams.
Furthermore, only two players from spread systems, Cam Newton and, yes, Tim Tebow, have won playoff games. In fact, Newton is the only player to compile a winning record after starting more than 16 games, and he’s the obvious exception to the spread offense jinx, leading the Carolina Panthers to three straight playoff appearances while winning MVP last season. He is also physically different from the other quarterbacks on this list (and really everyone else ever).
Newton’s ascension from questionable passer to NFL MVP can be largely credited to his mental understanding of the game from college to now. He even has a mental strength coach, who raves about Newton’s uncanny ability to “learn and process information very quickly.” Panthers coaches back that up, raving about his command of the playbook and improvement in his ability to read defenses, which barring an injury-riddled 2014 season, has led to him cutting down on turnovers every year.
For Goff, this remains a massive problem, it seems. He hasn’t been able to fully grasp the playbook or show an ability to read NFL defenses based on what we’ve seen thus far. Goff completed just 44.9 percent of his passes in the preseason, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions — while fumbling the ball three times. His slight frame has also been something of a red flag; he had to be pulled out of two of four games due to injury.
Rams head coach Jeff Fisher has made it a point to talk about how much Goff has “progressed” whenever he can get in front of a microphone, but his actions have belied his words. (He demoted Goff from backup to third-string.) Goff will be inactive in L.A.’s season opener against the San Francisco 49ers.
“He’s going to be a great player,” Fisher said of Goff. “As we’ve said from Day One, we’re not rushing him. We don’t have to rush it. I’m really happy with where he is right now.”
The reality is that if the Rams were happy with Goff, he’d be in line for a promotion to starter (as was expected) — not inactive. Los Angeles also does have to rush him. Fisher and general manager Les Snead mortgaged their futures with the massive trade up to get Goff, and if he can’t even get on the field, it will likely spell doom for them.
Ultimately, Goff’s ability to make the transition from spread to pro offense will largely determine how good the Rams will be in their first decade in Los Angeles. It’s a transition that he seems to be failing early on, and history tells us there isn’t much hope that he’ll be able to get back on track.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/09/2016 12:45PM by Florida_Ram.
