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dodgerram
if the Rams really are close as Fisher and Snead repeatedly have said the loss of those picks is costly IF Goff can not provide an upgrade at the all important QB position for this team.
To me that's just bad logic.
First, apparently the coaches trust CK more than the writer does. The logic being, CK works as a bridge qb AND in fact the whole point of going with a bridge qb is to win now and not sacrifice games to a rookie learning curve.
Second, the picks are worth it or not worth it based on the next decade. The point of trading up is to get a franchise qb...meaning (ie. how I use the term) a consistent season in and season out starter ("franchise" does not mean "elite" necessarily unless you think Ryan or Stafford are elite.)
So based on that I don't judge the pick on the basis of the first few games of 2016.
Also, if you look back through history, there are just a small handful of times in the NFL where a team picking lower than say 10th traded up to the first spot to take a qb. That means a team with a record around 8-8, give or take, trading up. (Interestingly, in 1952 the 9-3 Rams got the 1st pick in the draft that year by landing it as a lottery bonus pick, and they took qb Billy Wade).
Arguably teams picking qbs that high will usually have records in the 1-15 to 4-12 range and so usually have nothing to lose in starting a rookie qb. Also arguably the Rams in contrast have nothing to gain.
Either way, going back to 2009 and Stafford, there have been 19 qbs picked in the 1st round. I will take "starting a rookie early" as meaning the qb gets at least 10 starts his rookie year, beginning with the first or second game of the season. Of those 19 qbs, 15 meet that criteria (4 don't begin the season as starters or play at least 10 games though those 4 do play during the season). Of those 15, 3 play for teams with a winning record their rookie year (Sanchez, Luck, Griffin). (Notably two of those later fell on hard times for different reasons). That means 12 teams starting rookies ended up with losing records. If you look just at qbs picked in the top 10, it's 12 qbs, 11 of which start the season (the exception being Locker). Of those 11, it's the same 3 playing for teams with winning records their rookie year (Sanchez, Luck, Griffin). The other 8 play for teams with losing records.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/03/2016 04:39AM by zn.
